When: January 1
Where: Jacksonville, FL
Who: Texas Tech (8-4; 4-4 Big 12 South) vs. Virginia (9-3; 6-2 ACC Coastal)
The Offenses:
Tech owns the nation’s top passing offense, at over 475 yards per game, and the nation’s worst rushing attack, at under 62 yards per game. Overall, the Red Raiders average 537 yards (second nationally) and 41.8 points per contest (sixth). QB Graham Harrell is sixth nationally in pass efficiency (160.5) and first in total offense (436.3 yards per game). Harrell has two dangerous weapons in Michael Crabtree and Danny Amendola, each have over 100 catches and 1,000 yards on the season. UVA has notoriously struggled on offense; the ‘Hoos are 100th in total offense (329.2 yards per game) and 86th in scoring offense (24 points per game). Instead of a spread offense, the Cavaliers often trot out two- and three-tight end formations and go to the big guys in the passing game: seniors Tom Santi and Jonathan Stupar have combined for 70 catches, 736 yards, and four scores on the season. The Cavaliers received a scare when all-purpose back Mikell Simpson did not make the trip with his team to Jacksonville due to some academic concerns, but to much delight, Simpson was deemed eligible and was on a plane to Jacksonville two days later.
Big Edge: Texas Tech
The Defenses:
The Red Raiders can let up points almost as fast as they can put them on the board (51st in the country at 25.8 points allowed per game). Tech allows 171 yards per game rushing and registers under 28 minutes of possession time per contest. Meanwhile, Virginia is 17th in total defense (323 yards allowed per game) and 13th in scoring defense (18.8 points allowed per game). The ‘Hoos have allowed more than 23 points only twice on the season, while the Raiders have given up more than 23 on seven occasions. The biggest difference between the two defenses is the level of aggressiveness: Texas Tech has collected only 13 takeaways and 23 sacks, while those numbers are 21 takeaways and 40 sacks for UVA. Superstar end Chris Long is third nationally with 14 sacks and 10th with 19 tackles for loss. However, the much-maligned Cavalier secondary will be without starter Chris Cook, who was declared academically ineligible and will not play.
Edge: Virginia
The Coaches:
Head Coach Mike Leach has designed a gung-ho fusion of the spread and west coast offenses and created an offense that consistently ranks at the top in passing and near the bottom in rushing. Leach is 64-37 at Texas Tech, and though his teams are never elite, they are always fun to watch. His Red Raiders teams are 4-3 in bowls, but have won four of their last five. Al Groh, on the other hand, is noted for his conservative style and personality. He is 51-36 at Virginia, and this improbable season saw Groh go from outhouse, after the Wyoming loss, to penthouse, after seven straight wins and a top-20 ranking. The Cavs are 3-1 in bowls under Groh.
Slight Edge: Texas Tech
The Intangibles:
Everybody knows about Virginia’s close wins: the Cavs are 6-1 in games decided by seven points or less. Texas Tech is 1-2 in those games. Then again, the Raiders have won six games by at least 25 points. UVA’s best defense will be its offense. If the ‘Hoos can keep the Red Raiders off the field with sustained drives, it should serve to keep the Texas Tech offense in relative check. Mother Nature may also be on the Cavaliers’ side, as the weather report for New Year’s Day in Jacksonville is calling for 20 mph winds. Winds that may just slow down the Red Raider passing attack.
Slight Edge: Virginia
Key Match-up: Tech Wideout Michael Crabtree against whoever thinks they can cover him. The Redshirt Frosh leads the nation in the WR triple crown categories: 125 receptions, 1,861 yards, and 21 touchdowns. Stopping Crabtree won’t guarantee success against Texas Tech - after all, four Red Raiders have more receiving yards than Virginia’s leader in that category, Tom Santi - but it would help.
The Pick: The contrasting styles point to a potentially high-scoring affair in Jacksonville, which might frighten most Wahoo fans. But Jameel Sewell & Co. are than more up to the challenge.
Virginia 34, Texas Tech 31!
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