For college basketball fans like myself, mid-March and early April are the most wonderful months of the year: 64 intense, exciting, win-or-go-home college games over a three week stretch. Anything can happen during the NCAA Tournament, and often, anything does. The chaos can take the form of an improbable mid-major team (whose credentials for making the tournament were questionable) that tears through three of the college game’s bluebloods on its way to the Final Four. It can be a first-round upset won at the buzzer, a miracle Sweet 16 team, or just your favorite school getting a chance to dance. This year, March promises to be as Mad as ever, as increasing parity in college basketball manifests itself in, say, a George Mason or a Bradley. I have carefully and thoroughly researched this year’s field, poring over schedules, match-ups, and coaching battles, all so that you know exactly who not to pick to win it all. Here’s my breakdown of the 2007 edition of March Madness:
Midwest
Overview:
This is probably the weakest quarter of the bracket. I did not particularly want to pick Florida to win its region; historically, it has been nearly impossible to be a repeat Final Four team, much less a repeat National Championship team. But with their potential road to the Final Four, I cannot help but expect them to roll through the Midwest. Wisconsin is a deserving 2 seed, but without forward Brian Butch, they are one bad Alando Tucker shooting night away from a quick exit. 3 seed Oregon is a tough team with incredibly balanced scoring – all five starters average double figures in points – but their fast-paced, guard-oriented offense does not bode well for the later rounds of the region (think last year’s Villanova team or 2003 St. Joe’s). I thought 4 seed Maryland was playing well to end the season, but then they lose to Miami (again) in the ACC Tournament opening round. I see the biggest threats to Florida as Oregon (if they make it to the regional final and have a great shooting night), Maryland (because the Terps can beat just about anyone when they’re hot, even on the road), and Notre Dame as the sleeper (great outside shooting and good enough rebounding will always give a team a fighting chance). Winthrop, Old Dominion, and Davidson are all good mid-major teams with upset dreams, and it would be foolish to count out Arizona, with that kind of talent, or UNLV, which has little problems winning on the road (like at Nevada).
First Round Picks:
Florida wins easily against overmatched Jackson State. Arizona outscores a hard-charging Purdue team thanks to great outside shooting. Old Dominion is playing much better than Butler is right now, and I love the 12-5 upset. Maryland is too good of a team for Davidson, as much as I like Stephen Curry. Same goes for Oregon against Miami-Ohio – just too much talent. I would have liked Winthrop a lot more if everyone hadn’t hopped on their bandwagon; plus, Notre Dame finished the year looking very impressive. UNLV is a better road/neutral-site team than Georgia Tech, and they have the experience edge too. Wisconsin takes care of business against a feisty Texas A&M-Corpus Christi.
Second Round Picks:
Even though Florida neither intimidates nor overmatches Arizona, I like the Gators because they have gotten it done in the tournament before, but these Wildcats have not. Maryland takes out ODU, but I could see this one going the other way if the Terps play as bad as they did against Miami. Notre Dame beats Oregon in a shoot-out; the Ducks peaked back in December, and they can give up points in a hurry. Wisconsin beats UNLV, although by this time, everyone that picked the Badgers to make the Final Four will be sweating bullets because their first weekend games will be closer than anyone thought.
Regional Semifinals Picks:
Florida beats Maryland in the first semifinal; the Terps are essentially a poor man’s Gators, with a lesser inside trio (Gist, Osby, and Ibekwe against Noah, Richard, and Horford), a more error-prone ball-handling tandem (Strawberry and Vazquez against Green and Brewer), and we’ll call a wash on the shooters (Jones against Humphrey). I’ll take Notre Dame in the other semifinal, just because it will be difficult for Wisconsin to make the Elite Eight. Although they are a deserving 2 seed, the Badgers have a tough road and cannot outscore an opponent (like Oregon or Notre Dame) when they get hot from the floor.
The Champ:
As I said, I want to avoid picking Florida… but I have no choice. Their toughest possible road, according to seeds, is Arizona (underachieving), Maryland (inconsistent – lost to Miami twice), and Wisconsin (a two-man team without Brian Butch). That looks very doable for the most talented team in the country. I like them over a surprising Notre Dame team in the regional final, but I could see Oregon or Wisconsin earning the honor of losing to the Gators in the Elite Eight.
1 Florida 74, 6 Notre Dame 61
East
Overview:
The top of this region is very strong: 1 seed North Carolina won the ACC Tournament in dominating fashion, and 2 seed Georgetown cruised through the Big East and is a tough match-up for anyone. Washington State is a deserving 3 seed whose style of play works well in a neutral-site tournament, and Texas is as talented a 4 seed as they come with freshmen Kevin Durant and D.J. Augustin. Marquette-Michigan State is a fantastic 8-9 match-up. The bottom of the bracket has a few capable teams, like 14 seed Oral Roberts, 13 seed New Mexico State, and 10 seed Texas Tech, but 12 seed Arkansas and 11 seed George Washington should go quietly. Any one of the top four seeds has a legitimate chance to win this region, which should make for very interesting regional semifinal and finals match-ups. This is also the best-coached bracket of the four regions; four coaches (Roy Williams of UNC, Tom Crean of Marquette, Tom Izzo of Michigan State, and Bob Knight of Texas Tech) have taken teams to the Final Four, with Williams, Izzo, and Knight all having won championships. Southern California coach Tim Floyd used to coach in the NBA. Washington State coach Tony Bennett, Georgetown Coach John Thompson III, and Oral Roberts coach Scott Sutton all are sons of long-time college coaches (Dick, John Jr., and Eddie, respectively). Expect most of these games to be very exciting and competitive.
First Round Picks:
North Carolina will beat Eastern Kentucky. Marquette will beat Michigan State, because outside of Ohio State and Wisconsin, the Big 10 has no team capable of a deep run. USC will beat an Arkansas team that probably did not deserve a tournament invite. Texas will trample New Mexico State, which has trouble against top competition. I would like to pick Oral Roberts over Washington State, but 3 seeds only lose every few years. Vanderbilt will run past GW. Bobby Knight’s team will beat Al Skinner’s in a match-up of coaches who recently cannot seem to get their teams past the second round. Georgetown continues its impressive stretch run, crushing Belmont.
Second Round Picks:
North Carolina-Marquette is a tough match-up for the Golden Eagles, who have little inside presence. Their guard play could carry them to victory, but they will not be able to outscore the Tar Heels. Texas will beat USC, as concerns about Kevin Durant’s ability to play on a national stage are assuaged. This next game is the toughest of the four second round games in the East; Vanderbilt is not a consistent team, but they can blow a defensive-minded Washington State squad out of the water if they play up to their potential. I’ll make the safe pick, and choose the Cougars. Lastly, Georgetown continues its great late-season play and manhandles Knight’s Texas Tech team.
Regional Semifinals Picks:
A North Carolina-Texas regional semifinal would have the feel of a Final Four game. More than two dozen NBA scouts would attend, as young stars like Ty Lawson, Tyler Hansbrough, and Brandan Wright of UNC and Augustin and Durant of Texas would attract the entire spotlight – and then some. Durant is a match-up nightmare for anyone, but I expect him to thrive against a team that loves to play the same up-tempo style he does. Hansbrough looks better with the mask, but he still is not comfortable; with that inside advantage somewhat curbed, Texas will win. In the other semifinal, Georgetown will top Washington State with ease. The schools play similar slow-tempo, precision-oriented offenses; the Hoyas are simply better at it than the Cougars. Washington State has only a few bodies they could throw at Georgetown big man Roy Herbert, and they certainly have no one athletic enough to match-up with forward Jeff Green. Wazzu’s hopes lie in their guard play, but Georgetown’s backcourt is more maligned than it deserves and the Cougars will not dominate at that position.
The Champ:
Texas and Georgetown are both teams that have the potential to win it all – but instead, one of them will have to settle for regional runner-up. This match-up is very give-and-take. Texas has the talent edge, Georgetown the experience. The Longhorns play up-tempo basketball; the Hoyas prefer to control the game with their Princeton offense. I like the Hoyas just a little bit more, because teams that play run-and-shoot usually fare worse than those that play with composure and set offenses. Also, the Longhorns have one primary scorer and everybody else, whereas anyone in Georgetown’s starting five can step up and lead his team in scoring any day. Texas is one bad Kevin Durant game from elimination, and the Hoyas are best defensive team in this bracket and have the player most capable of defending Durant in Jeff Green.
2 Georgetown 71, 4 Texas 66
South
Overview:
This is probably the deepest and most wide-open region in the bracket; nine of the top ten seeds have a real chance to do damage and either make the Final Four or destroy everyone’s brackets. Top-seeded Ohio State obviously is a threat with the inside-out game of frosh Greg Oden and former high-school teammate Mike Conley, Jr. Second-seeded Memphis is athletic and playing as a more cohesive unit after the departure of two NBA first-round draft picks. 3 seed Texas A&M and 5 seed Tennessee have two of the best clutch shooters in the college game in Acie Law IV and Chris Lofton, respectively. 6 seed Louisville won road contests against Pitt and Marquette in the same week to punch their dance card, and did not lose to a team worse than 31 in the RPI in conference play. Nevada got robbed with a 7 seed; All-American forward-center Nick Fazekas and guards Ramon Sessions and Marcelus Kemp are a talented, experienced trio. BYU was a surprise regular season winner of the Mountain West and will take on 9 seed Xavier, which beat tournament teams VCU and Villanova at neutral sites and last-minute bubble castoffs Syracuse and Kansas State. 10 seed Creighton can always make noise in the NCAA Tournament because of good defense and strong shooting. The 12, 13, and 14 seeds – Long Beach State, Albany and Penn – are all capable teams with strong guard play (a key for early round victories). As for our beloved Wahoos, well, they probably won’t make any such noise in the Big Dance. They have performed too poorly in road and neutral settings to merit much confidence in this tournament, and let’s face it, a 4 seed is very, very generous of the Selection Committee. On the other hand, they have a favorable draw up until Ohio State…
First Round Picks:
Obviously, Ohio State will beat Central Connecticut State. Xavier tops BYU (in a related story, Mountain West teams are a combined 5-16 in the NCAA Tournament since the formation of the conference). Tennessee will handle Long Beach State, and in a very biased selection, Virginia will eke out a W against a game Albany squad. Texas A&M will rout Penn, as the Quakers get bounced easily for the third straight year. Stanford has too much inside presence for the Cardinals’ big men to handle. Nevada will beat Creighton – although this might be the toughest first round selection for me in the entire tournament. Finally, Memphis will thrash North Texas like it was part of the C-USA.
Second Round Picks:
Ohio State will knock of X in the hardest ticket to get in the first round (both teams are just a few miles down the road from Lexington, Kentucky). Tennessee will knock off Virginia – I just can’t see the Cavaliers making the Sweet 16 with a 0-3 record at neutral sites on the year (all losses to teams that missed the NCAA Tournament). Texas A&M will knock off Stanford because of superior talent and perimeter play. In the last second round game, Nevada will take care of Memphis; the Tigers have only beaten two tournament teams this season despite their 30-3 overall record, and they have not lost since before Christmas, which could actually be a bad sign because they have not had any real competition since that time.
Regional Semifinals Picks:
In a stunner, Tennessee will take out Ohio State to advance to the Elite Eight. The Volunteers lost to the Buckeyes by two points, in Columbus, without leader and star player Chris Lofton back in January. Although UT would not have an answer for star center Greg Oden, they have the perimeter advantage and force enough turnovers against an OSU team that has only one confident ball-handler. Meeting Tennessee in the regional final will be Texas A&M, who will eke out a win against Nevada. Although they are a talented squad, it is difficult to see the Wolf Pack in the Elite Eight because of their difficult road there. On the other hand, TA&M has a relatively easy path, a point guard with a tendency to make big shots, and other good shooters who present match-up problems for a team sometimes reluctant to play defense. The Aggies will also always be in a game; five of their six losses have come by three points or fewer.
The Champ:
In the regional final, Texas A&M will defeat a game Tennessee squad in one of the most fun-to-watch games in this tournament. Acie Law IV and Chris Lofton will match each other deep three for deep three, and in the end it will come down to the Volunteers’ inability to stop the other scorers on the Aggies – Joseph Jones (54.8% from the floor), Antanas Kavaliauskas (56.2%), and Josh Carter (NCAA-leading 51.6% from three). Both teams are extremely well coached, but the advantage goes to the X’s and O’s genius of Billy Gillispie against the motivational mastery of Bruce Pearl.
3 Texas A&M 80, 5 Tennessee 76
West
This is another very balanced, very talented region. Each of the top three seeds – Kansas, UCLA, and Pittsburgh – were popular pre-season picks to reach the Final Four, and each has a decent shot at fulfilling that prediction. 4 seed Southern Illinois is the highest seeded team from a mid-major conference, and used suffocating defense to build a 13 game winning streak before losing to Creighton in the Missouri Valley final. 5 seed Virginia Tech runs a high-flying, jump-shooting offense, and can beat any team (wins at Duke and a sweep of UNC) or lose to anybody (Western Michigan, Marshall, NC State three times). Duke is the 6 seed, the lowest seed it has received in more than a decade. The Blue Devils’ streak of nine consecutive Sweet 16 appearances is also under serious jeopardy in this tournament. Bluebloods Indiana and Kentucky are the 7 and 8 seeds, but it would be unwise to have either team advancing far in your bracket; the Hoosiers came in a distant third in an overrated Big Ten, and Kentucky went 5-9 against the RPI Top 50 (including 1-6 against the RPI Top 25). Villanova is not quite as balanced and guard-oriented as last year, but they have a few players (senior Curtis Sumpter and freshman Scottie Reynolds) that are capable of single-handedly carrying them to victory. 10 seeded Gonzaga, 11 seed Virginia Commonwealth, 13 seed Holy Cross, and 14 seed Wright State are all mid-major champions capable of winning one or two games in the tournament, especially considering their match-ups.
First Round Picks:
Kansas will beat Niagara. Villanova’s Wildcats will top Kentucky’s Wildcats. Virginia Tech will take care of Illinois, and Southern Illinois will beat back the upset dreams of Holy Cross. Pitt will beat Wright State, and in the second round will face VCU, the only true underdog winner of the first round. Gonzaga will return to its Cinderella roots and knock off Indiana, and UCLA, which reached the Final Four last year as a 2 seed, will begin its quest for a repeat appearance on college basketball’s biggest stage by crushing Weber State.
Second Round Picks:
Kansas is too talented all-around to lose to Villanova, and this year they have tournament experience to back up their skill (not to mention something to prove). Virginia Tech will take care of Southern Illinois, which lacks the offensive firepower to get into a shootout with the above-the-rim Hokies. Pitt will end Virginia Commonwealth’s Sweet 16 dreams – but barely. The Panthers will again struggle to get past their second round game. And in a rematch of one of the most exciting tournament games last year (the Bruins rallied from a 13 point deficit with two minutes remaining to win), UCLA will again defeat Gonzaga, although it will not be as close this time.
Regional Semifinals Picks:
UCLA and Kansas are the most consistent and talented teams in this bracket, and they also have two of the best coaches anywhere in the country. Kansas, which looks very similar to Virginia Tech in terms of style and athleticism, will take out the Hokies because of tournament experience and overall consistency. In the other regional semifinal, UCLA coach Ben Howland will take on the program he resurrected in Pitt. I like UCLA because of superior guard play. Pitt center Aaron Gray is a mismatch for almost any team he goes up against, including a Bruins team that lacks a dominant inside presence. But UCLA will shut down the Panther perimeter game, and guard Darren Collison will make all the right decisions on the way to a win.
The Champ:
This is the only final where I see the top two seeds advancing. Kansas is the more balanced and athletic team, but UCLA is more seasoned and plays better tournament-style basketball (hard-nosed defense, limiting turnovers, and the ability to hit key shots included). Also, Kansas coach Bill Self has had plenty of talented teams to work with (like the Illinois team a year before they won their first 30 games), but has never reached a Final Four. On the other side, Bruins coach Ben Howland took this team back to the Final Four last year, and has a history of getting his teams to play up to their seeding or higher. I think UCLA is the safest pick in this region.
2 UCLA 72, 1 Kansas 67
Final Four
National Semifinals Picks:
In the first semifinal, UCLA will take on Florida in a rematch of last year’s national title game. The Gators slaughtered the Bruins last year, as UCLA could not get anything going from the field and Joakim Noah punished the opposition inside. I expect a better effort from UCLA in this one, but I think the Gators will remember last year’s punishing and contribute more of the same on the offensive end. If the game is high scoring, the outcome will favor Florida… and I expect UCLA to resort to running and gunning because of their inability to stop Noah and Horford in the paint.
Florida 70, UCLA 60
In the other national final, Georgetown will take on Texas A&M. Neither coach has made it to this stage before, but Hoyas coach John Thompson III will be more equipped to deal with the pressure. Not only has he won more tournament games than Aggies head man Billy Gillispie, but perhaps coaching in the Final Four is in his blood (his father, John Thompson, Jr., took three Hoyas teams to the Final Four in the 1980s). Like his father, JT3 has a potentially great center in his lineup and has his teams run a precise, Princeton-style offense to complement hard-nosed defense. Georgetown will not be able to stop Acie Law, but I doubt that as great as Law is, he can single-handedly lead a team to victory. Texas A&M will certainly have no answer for Hibbert or Green, and Georgetown will be able to neutralize the Aggies’ other weapons.
Georgetown 64, Texas A&M 62
The National Champion:
These two teams faced off last year in the Sweet 16, with Florida barely escaping its toughest test of the tournament against a game Georgetown squad. Unlike its rematch with UCLA, I see this game going in a completely different direction. Hoyas forward Jeff Green has morphed into a great all-around scorer, someone who the Gators cannot shut down. Florida has the advantage in the backcourt, but not by much; Georgetown’s much-maligned guard trio of Jonathan Wallace, DaJuan Summers, and Jessie Sapp combine to average just under 29 points per game. The Hoyas’ main weakness, depth, is also the primary weakness of Florida. If Georgetown frustrates the Gators’ big men, drawing fouls and playing stout defense, the Hoyas will have the defending national champs on the ropes. Florida’s title defense will play out more like the ’91 UNLV team that lost in the finals than the last team to repeat successfully, the ’92 Duke Blue Devils.
Georgetown 68, Florida 59
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