The Fanatic Magazine - A student-run sports magazine for the UVA fanatic

Fanaticology 3/8/07

Written by Michael Garcia

Friday, 09 March 2007

Five days and counting. I can hardly wait until I see Greg Gumbel rattle off the 65 teams to participate in this year’s version of March Madness. Until then, I will be watching the buffet of low- and mid-major conference tournaments and charting which teams are in and which couldn’t quite make it this season (quite a spring break, I know). Here’s this edition of the projected field of 65:

America East (1)
Vermont: 25-6 (15-1), 76 RPI, 221 SOS
The Catamounts face off with second place Albany on Saturday in what is sure to be one of the best low-major conference tournament finals. The Catamounts swept the season series, but won by only a combined 13 points. The winner of Saturday’s game will likely be one of the highest seeded single-bid league champs in the NCAA Tournament.

Atlantic Sun (1)
#Belmont: 22-9 (14-4), 113 RPI, 261 SOS
The Bruins thrashed regular-season Atlantic Sun champion East Tennessee State, 94-67, to claim their second straight A-Sun title and NCAA Tournament berth. Unfortunately for Belmont, they will probably have the same post-season fate as last year, when they lost to eventual runner-up UCLA in the first round.

Atlantic Coast Conference (7)
Boston College: 19-10 (10-6), 30 RPI, 11 SOS
Could the Sean Williams dismissal finally be having the impact everyone thought it would two months ago? The Eagles have lost four of their last five, with none of the losses being particularly tense or close. They will gladly take the first-round bye in the ACC tourney to try and regroup before next Thursday.
Duke: 22-9 (8-8), 14 RPI, 3 SOS
The Blue Devils are a mere 4-6 in their last 10 games (although, to be fair, all losses have come against RPI Top 50 teams). Duke is lucky the one game suspension of Gerald Henderson for a flagrant foul against Carolina’s Tyler Hansbrough probably will not be a factor in its first round game against Wake Forest.
Georgia Tech: 20-10 (8-8), 34 RPI, 25 SOS
The Yellow Jackets, left for at-large dead after a 13-8 (2-6 ACC) start, made a miraculous mid-season rally to push themselves off the tournament bubble and almost certainly into the NCAAs for sure. However, GT should still be concerned about the difficulty it has winning on the road.
Maryland: 24-7 (10-6), 10 RPI, 9 SOS
The Terps, like Georgia Tech, looked to be on the wrong side of the tournament bubble at one point in the last month or so (they were 17-7 and 3-6 in the ACC at one point). But since then, Maryland has reeled off seven straight, including five wins against RPI Top 50 competition, to save its season and put itself in good shape come Selection Sunday.
North Carolina: 25-6 (11-5), 3 RPI, 5 SOS
The good news: the Tar Heels swept hated rival Duke this year, and center Tyler Hansbrough will probably be good to go for the ACC tournament after taking a brutal elbow from Henderson in the last game of the regular season. The bad news: Hansbrough will also wear a protective face mask for some time. Some players might feel comfortable with the mask (see: Rip Hamilton), but could it make Hansbrough more hesitant to power his way inside as often as he does?
Virginia: 19-9 (11-5), 41 RPI, 39 SOS
Not being able to win both at Miami at Wake is too bad. Not being able to win either hurts, especially with the ACC regular season title at stake. Still, it has been an impressive season for the team picked to finished 8th in the preseason and whose at-large hopes looked dead after an 8-6 (1-2 ACC) start. How the team fares in the ACC tournament will be a good barometer of the Cavs’ confidence level and ability to play away from home – not to mention the effect that performance will have on their NCAA Tournament seed (which could range from about a 5 to a 9 at this point).
Virginia Tech: 19-10 (10-6), 31 RPI, 14 SOS
VPI is sure to be a headache for anyone in a tournament pool; they have shown they can beat anyone (Duke, Maryland, BC, UVA, UNC twice) and lose to anyone (Western Michigan, Marshall, Clemson at home, NC State twice).

Atlantic 10 (1)
Xavier: 23-7 (13-3), 32 RPI, 86 SOS
A first place finish in the A-10, strong computer numbers for a mid-major, and some impressive non-conference wins (VCU, Villanova, Illinois, and Kansas State) should be enough to ensure X of an at-large berth should they fail to win the conference tournament.

Big East (7)
Georgetown: 23-6 (13-3), 17 RPI, 32 SOS
The Big East regular season champs have only lost to RPI Top 50 foes and are 6-5 against that category, making them a more-than-viable 2 or 3 seed. If no one from this team opts to leave early for the NBA, the Hoyas will be one of the elite teams to beat next season.
Louisville: 21-8 (12-4), 40 RPI, 41 SOS
The Cardinals have won their last six to climb into a tie for second in the Big East (they won the tiebreaker over Pitt for the second seed in the conference tournament). Five of Louisville’s losses have come to RPI Top 25 teams.
Marquette: 22-8 (10-6), 23 RPI, 16 SOS
The Golden Eagles appeared to be in trouble, losing four of their last five in the month of February (and going 3-4 overall last month), before righting the ship with a home win against Pitt. Marquette’s seed in the NCAA Tournament will depend greatly on how they do in the Big East tourney this week.
Notre Dame: 23-6 (11-5), 33 RPI, 115 SOS
The Fighting Irish set a school record this year with 18 home wins (they went undefeated in South Bend). Five straight wins to close the season catapulted the Irish into fourth place in the Big East and into strong seed position for the NCAA Tournament.
Pitt: 25-6 (12-4), 5 RPI, 8 SOS
The Panthers have lost three straight against RPI Top 50 foes and three of six overall to drop them from 1 seed contention. However, they are the three seed in the Big East tournament and will probably receive that same position in the Big Dance later this month.
Syracuse: 21-9 (10-6), 50 RPI, 50 SOS
A late (and somewhat reluctant) addition to the projected field of 65, ’Cuse earns a spot here because of a win last week against Big East power Georgetown. However, if bids get stolen in minor conference tournament (that is, if teams like Xavier in the A-10 or Nevada in the WAC defer their auto bids to teams who would not otherwise make the tournament), the Orange will be one of the first teams dropped from the list.
Villanova: 20-9 (9-7), 18 RPI, 7 SOS
The Wildcats swept the other members of the Philly Five (Temple, La Salle, Saint Joseph’s, and Penn – never an easy accomplishment) and should make the Big Dance despite being the 8 seed in the Big East tournament.

Big Sky (1)
Weber State: 15-11 (11-5), 159 RPI, 265 SOS
The top-seeded Wildcats begin their conference tournament today against Portland State and, more importantly, have home court advantage throughout the tourney. Whichever team wins this wide-open conference can pencil themselves in as a 16 seed.

Big South (1)
#Winthrop: 24-4 (14-0), 69 RPI, 26 SOS
In the Big South final against VMI, Winthrop flirted with a loss and likely NIT relegation before pulling out an 84-81 thriller. With a somewhat high underdog seed in hand (think 10-12 range), the next step for this program is to win an NCAA Tournament game after making the Dance for the third straight season.

Big 10 (5)
Indiana: 20-9 (10-6), 24 RPI, 42 SOS
The Hoosiers are your typical Big 10 team: they are tough to beat at home (15-0 this year) but also struggle to win big games on the road (they have losses at fellow bubble squads Iowa, Illinois, Purdue, Michigan, and Michigan State). Still, it is safe to say Kelvin Sampson has pleased most Indiana fans in his first season at the program’s helm.
Michigan State: 21-10 (8-8), 22 RPI, 10 SOS
The Spartans sealed an NCAA invite with the win over Wisconsin, but could have really improved their seeding (not to mention their Big 10 finish) had they been able to hold on the second time against the Badgers. This looks to be one of the weakest Tom Izzo teams in recent memory.
Ohio State: 27-3 (15-1), 2 RPI, 22 SOS
With last week’s win over Wisconsin, Ohio State put itself in prime contention for a 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament and the number 1 overall seed. The Buckeyes have won 14 in a row and are 19-0 at home.
Purdue: 20-10 (9-7), 45 RPI, 48 SOS
Earns a spot in this projects by the slimmest of margins over Illinois. The Fighting Illini have an RPI 10 spots higher, but the Boilermakers own the head-to-head match-up and have a few more solid non-conference wins. A better showing by the Illini in the Big 10 tourney, however, could easily shift this decision the other way.
Wisconsin: 27-4 (13-3), 4 RPI, 40 SOS
The Badgers lost two tough road games, at Michigan State and at Ohio State, last week, but are still in good shape for a 1 or 2 seed at worst for the NCAA Tournament. The question is, can they play without injured forward Brian Butch, who is likely out for the rest of the season?

Big XII (4)
Kansas: 27-4 (14-2), 15 RPI, 67 SOS
The Big XII champion Jayhawks are currently on an eight-game winning streak after posting a streak of 10 earlier this season. Faring well in the conference tournament could very likely mean a 1 seed in the NCAAs for this squad.
Texas: 22-8 (12-4), 28 RPI, 60 SOS
The Longhorns and stud freshman Kevin Durant gave Kansas a great fight in Lawrence, but in the end could not pull off a share of the Big XII regular season crown. But this team is used to that kind of drama; Texas has played in four overtime contests this season, amounting to seven extra frames in all.
Texas A&M: 25-5 (13-3), 16 RPI, 55 SOS
I must admit, I got chills watching Acie Law drain those two clutch threes, the first in regulation and the second in OT, against Texas before the Aggies eventually lost. A&M’s three conference losses came by two points each.
Texas Tech: 20-11 (9-7), 42 RPI, 21 SOS
Although a season sweep of rival Texas A&M is the invite clincher for Bob Knight and the Red Raiders, a lack of big non-conference wins and a fifth-place finish in a four or five bid league will only hurt Tech’s seeding come Selection Sunday.

Big West (1)
Long Beach State: 21-7 (12-2), 85 RPI, 225 SOS
The 49ers have won 20 of 23 since a 1-4 start to the season, including a dominating run in conference play that saw them finish three games above three second-place teams. Any other Big West team would get a 15 or 16 seed in the NCAA Tournament, but LBSU could be lucky enough to be a 14.

Colonial Athletic Association (3)
Drexel: 22-8 (13-5), 46 RPI, 96 SOS
I know, I know, Drexel is the fourth-best team in a two- or three-bid league. A sweep at the hands of ODU means they are currently third in the CAA pecking order. However, I still think the Dragons have a chance at an at-large berth because of their tough schedule and numerous quality non-conference road wins (Vermont, Syracuse, Villanova, and Creighton).
Old Dominion: 24-8 (15-3), 39 RPI, 91 SOS
The Monarchs had won 12 straight before losing to George Mason in the conference semifinals. A trip to the conference finals would really have helped ODU out, but I still like their chances (provided that there are no huge upsets in multi-bid conferences later this week).
#Virginia Commonwealth: 27-6 (16-2), 47 RPI, 130 SOS
Winning the CAA title was huge for the Rams, who had slim at-large hopes and needed to win the auto bid. As of now, VCU is the only sure thing in a conference that could get one, two, or three bids.

Conference USA (1)
Memphis: 27-3 (16-0), 7 RPI, 72
The Tigers have not lost since before Christmas, are undefeated at home, and have won only two conference games by a single-digit margin of victory. Yet, they are not in the discussion for a 1 seed because they have only five wins against the RPI Top 100. Memphis could be an early-round upset victim; history shows that teams that play poor teams down the stretch are unprepared for the competition of the NCAA Tournament.

Horizon League (2)
Butler: 25-6 (13-3), 29 RPI, 108 SOS
Speaking of early-round upset victims, Butler has fallen down to earth since an incredible 9-0 run (including three RPI Top 50 wins) to start the season. The Bulldogs are only 3-4 in their last six games, and they barely squeaked past third-place Loyola Chicago, 67-66 in OT, in their first Horizon League tournament game before falling to Wright State in the final.
#Wright State: 23-9 (13-3), 72 RPI, 163 SOS
On their home floor, the Raiders stunned conference power Butler to take home their first Horizon League title and clinch their second NCAA Tournament berth in 20 years in Division I basketball. Head coach Brad Brownell, formerly of UNC-Wilmington, has worked wonders with this squad in less than a year at the helm.

Ivy League (1)
#Penn: 20-8 (12-1), 86 RPI, 159 SOS
The Quakers throttled second-place Yale, 86-58, to sew up their third straight Ivy League title and NCAA berth. There are many similarities (experience, recent dominance in league play, strong possibility of a first round upset) between this squad and Winthrop of the Big South.

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (1)
#Niagara: 22-11 (13-5), 136 RPI, 241 SOS
The Purple Eagles have won 11 consecutive games to come out of nowhere and win the MAAC crown. Niagara heads to the Big Dance for the second time in three years, and is looking at about a 15 seed.

Mid-American Conference (1)
Toledo: 18-11 (14-2), 87 RPI, 121 SOS
Toledo is better than its record indicates: five of its losses are to RPI Top 50 teams, and it has won 14 of 17 since a 4-8 start. The Rockets also ran away with the MAC West Division by an incredible five-game margin, and should play either Akron or Kent State in the conference tournament final with an NCAA bid on the line.

Mid Continent Conference (1)
#Oral Roberts: 22-10 (12-2), 91 RPI, 172 SOS
ORU topped second-place Oakland, 71-67, in a down-to-the-wire championship game. The Golden Eagles have made three straight Mid-Con finals, winning the last two. In the final, senior forward Caleb Green became the conference’s all-time leading scorer with 2,489 points (he was already the MCC’s all-time leading rebounder with 1,172 boards), while senior guard Ken Tutt banked home the winning basket for his 2,000th career point.

Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (1)
Delaware State: 18-11 (16-2), 118 RPI, 231 SOS
The Hornets have recovered from a brutal non-conference run, where they played (and lost) nine neutral site or away games against teams higher than them in the RPI (including five RPI Top 50 foes). DSU has since won 16 of 18, but that may not be good enough to keep them from getting a 16 seed if they win the MEAC tournament.

Missouri Valley (2)
#Creighton: 22-10 (13-5), 21 RPI, 17 SOS
By defeating Missouri State in the semifinals, Creighton may have actually hurt its own conference. The Blue Jays were already a lock upon reaching the semis, but Missouri State needed the game more from an at-large standpoint and now might not get in at all.
Southern Illinois: 26-6 (15-3), 6 RPI, 29 SOS
The Salukis had won 13 in a row until their MVC finals loss to Creighton, but are still in position to receive the highest seed in the NCAA Tournament of any mid-major school except Memphis.

Mountain West (3)
Air Force: 22-7 (10-6), 25 RPI, 73 SOS
The Air Force Academy’s NCAA Tournament stock has fallen about as far as it can without losing lock status. It seems teams have figured out how to beat the Falcons, who have lost their last three and six of 12.
Brigham Young: 22-7 (13-3), 20 RPI, 62 SOS
Despite some issues playing on the road, the Cougars capped a surprise season by trouncing rival Utah to clinch the MWC regular season championship. BYU has moved into second in the Mountain West pecking order as far as NCAA Tournament seeding is concerned.
Nevada-Las Vegas: 24-6 (12-4), 11 RPI, 36 SOS
The only team outside the WAC to defeat Nevada this season, UNLV looks like a good bet to receive a seed in the 4-5 range. The Runnin’ Rebels are perhaps as good as they have been since the early 1990s, when they reached consecutive NCAA Championship games.

Northeast Conference (1)
Central Connecticut State: 21-11 (16-2), 152 RPI, 273 SOS
Dominant since a 3-9 start to the season, the Blue Devils roll into Wednesday’s NEC final having won 16 of 17. In the conference championship game, CCSU will face second-place Sacred Heart, whom they swept in the season series.

Ohio Valley Conference (1)
#Eastern Kentucky: 19-11 (13-7), 130 RPI, 238 SOS
The Colonels return to the Big Dance after a thrilling 63-62 win over OVC regular season champion Austin Peay. Unfortunately, for EKU, it appears that they are headed to the bottom of a bracket (optimistically, a 15 seed) for the second time in three years.

Pacific 10 (6)
Arizona: 20-9 (11-7), 13 RPI, 2 SOS
The Wildcats maintain lock status as they have all along by virtue of great computer numbers and just enough wins. All of Arizona’s losses have come against opponents rated 53 or better in the RPI.
Oregon: 23-7 (11-7), 27 RPI, 75 SOS
The Ducks appear to have righted the ship after a mid-season slump in which they lost six of eight games, sweeping the Washington schools and beating rival Oregon State in their last three regular season contests.
Southern Cal: 21-10 (11-7), 53 RPI, 57 SOS
Despite less-than-desirable computer numbers and a serious lack of non-conference heft on its schedule (four wins against teams 300 and worse in the RPI), USC finds itself a virtual lock for the tournament. A quarterfinal win over Stanford would really help ease any uncertainty, though.
Stanford: 18-11 (10-8), 56 RPI, 23 SOS
The Cardinal need to win Thursday’s quarterfinal match-up against Southern California if they want to feel any sort of security on Selection Sunday. Blowout losses to Air Force and Santa Clara (both at home) and a 2-6 road Pac-10 record keep Stanford squarely on the bubble.
UCLA: 25-4 (15-3), 1 RPI, 6 SOS
Still a prime candidate for the number 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament, UCLA will begin its quest for another Pac-10 title on Thursday. The Bruins are an incredible 9-1 against the RPI Top 50.
Washington State: 24-6 (13-5), 26 RPI, 90 SOS
Not much to say here; Wazzu hung tough against UCLA but could not pull out the victory (which would have tied it with the Bruins for first place in the Pac-10). The Cougars should receive a 4 seed or better in March.

Patriot League (1)
Holy Cross: 24-8 (13-1), 67 RPI, 158 SOS
The Crusaders are 13-1 at home this year, and will get one more game in front of the home crowd against second-place Bucknell in one of the most highly-anticipated low-major conference finals. The teams split their regular season series, each winning at home (Holy Cross by five and Bucknell by three), and tied for first place atop the Patriot League regular season standings.

Southeastern Conference (5)
Arkansas: 18-12 (7-9), 49 RPI, 12 SOS
One team from the SEC West has to make it, right? One of the most confusing sub-conferences in recent memory, the SEC West has two teams at 8-8 in conference play and three more at 7-9. It might as well be Arkansas, which is 6-4 in its division and has a neutral court win over Southern Illinois to its credit.
Florida: 26-5 (13-3), 9 RPI, 46 SOS
Have the defending national champions lost their focus? The Gators had lost three of four before a win over Kentucky, including a genuinely disappointing loss at lowly Louisiana State. Despite those struggles, UF is still in line for a 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Kentucky: 20-10 (9-7), 12 RPI, 1 SOS
Kentucky’s failure to compete with the elite teams (2-6 against the RPI Top 25) has many UK fans calling for Tubby Smith’s ouster – and I think they will get it barring a deep run in the NCAA Tournament.
Tennessee: 22-9 (10-6), 8 RPI, 4 SOS
The Vols are another team recovering from a mid-season slump (in which they lost six of eight), although that skid was caused partially by the loss of Chris Lofton, the SEC’s leading scorer, to injury.
Vanderbilt: 19-10 (10-6), 37 RPI, 18 SOS
Talk about inconsistency: the Commodores beat Florida, then lose at Mississippi State; then they top Kentucky, only to barely escape lowly South Carolina and then lose at home to Arkansas. Vandy could be a real bracket buster if this erratic play continues.

Southern Conference (1)
#Davidson: 27-4 (17-1), 51 RPI, 194 SOS
Freshman Stephen Curry, son of former NBA player Dell, was too small to earn scholarship offers from ACC teams. After scoring 89 points in three games to lead the Wildcats to the SOCON championship, do you think some “big time” teams would like a mulligan on recruiting this kid? Because of their record, the Wildcats are looking at a decent 12-14 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Southland (1)
Texas A&M Corpus Christi: 21-6 (14-2), 89 RPI, 260 SOS
Saturday’s 85-68 win at Sam Houston State sealed the regular season Southland title for Texas A&M-CC, which has won 17 of its past 19 games. The Islanders kick off the conference tournament on Thursday, and SHSU should be the only real threat to a potential NCAA Tournament berth.

Southwestern Athletic Conference (1)
Mississippi Valley State: 16-14 (13-5), 209 RPI, 312 SOS
The winner of this conference is a mortal lock for the play-in game March 13, and as it stands right now, MVSU is that lucky first game participant. The Delta Devils have only one win against RPI Top 200 competition, and that was against SWAC second-place finisher Jackson State.

Sun Belt (1)
#North Texas: 20-10 (10-8), 136 RPI, 272 SOS
The Eagles, who finished the regular season tied for fifth in the Sun Belt standings and third in the West Division, won four games in the conference tournament to earn an auto bid. UNT avenged a season sweep at the hands of Arkansas State, beating the Indians 83-75 to head to the Big Dance for the first time since 1988.

Western Athletic Conference (1)
Nevada: 26-3 (14-2), 19 RPI, 117 SOS
One of the most consistent teams all year, the Wolf Pack are primed to make a deep run into the NCAA Tournament. Three starters, including All-American forward/center Nick Fazekas, were members of the 2004 team that upset Gonzaga and North Carolina to reach the Sweet 16.

West Coast Conference (1)
#Gonzaga: 23-10 (11-3), 60 RPI, 89 SOS
Despite what many college basketball pundits say, Gonzaga was not a lock to receive an at-large berth and needed to win the WCC tournament. The Bulldogs have been to nine straight tournaments – an extremely impressive streak for a mid-major in a consistent one- or two- bid league.

# Denotes conference tournament champion and automatic bid winner
* Teams listed with their overall record against Division I teams only and conference record in parenthesis
* SOS – Strength of Schedule, in terms of the team’s strength of schedule rank out of 336 Division I teams
* RPI – Ratings per Index, a formula taking into account strength of schedule and other factors that supposedly determines the nation’s top basketball teams
* RPI and SOS statistics are correct through March 5, 2007