Teams around the ACC are winding down their out-of-conference schedules, with Virginia capping its up-and-down opening stretch with home dates against Gonzaga and Stanford on Jan. 3 and 7, respectively (plus the obligatory February date with Longwood). But as much as coaches refuse to speculate on anything but the next game, it’s almost time for people who live in the real world to start looking at things in the only terms that matter in the ACC – who’s in the tourney and who’s out.
For every ACC team, it’s too early to panic and it’s too early to give up on the season – the ACC is the strongest conference in the country as of Dec. 30, which works both ways. It means you could very easily lose seven of your first eight contests and start packing it in for the 2007-08 season; but, it also means that going even 9-7 in conference play might get you into the NCAA Tournament discussion.
The following list has been sorted into four groups: teams that are basically locks for the tourney, teams that certainly could make the Big Dance (and at least two of them probably will), teams that are going to come up short of the Tournament, and teams that look pretty lousy early on. The full schedules of each team can be found at the end of their respective descriptions.
Tournament teams
 (2)UNC (12-1, 0-0)
Barring a major upset, UNC will be the No. 2 team in the country and will be 13-1 going into the ACC season. With Tyler Hansbrough making his best run at national player of the year honors and gobs of talent around him, the Heels will cut through the rest of the ACC like soft butter. The biggest question at this point for the Carolina Blue faithful is the health of point guard Bobby Frasor, who, when healthy, is the best point guard in the conference.
http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaab/teams/nav/schedule
 (5)Duke (12-1, 0-0)
With a roster absent of any true star power (although certainly a lot of talent), Coach K once again has his team poised to blow up the ACC and sprint deep into March. All the past stars of 20th century Duke basketball like JJ Redick and Shelden Williams are gone, but the team remains as potent as ever. Not a team you want to have to deal with when the score is tied with two minutes left. In terms of just making the Big Dance, discussing Duke isn’t a worthwhile exercise – they’ll cruise in with a two or three seed.
http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaab/teams/dau/schedule
 Maryland (13-2, 0-1)
The Terps are probably the fourth-best team in the conference right now and are predicted to finish fifth by Jeff Sagarin’s rankings (see link above). But after last year’s so-called snub when Jim Nantz and Billy Packer unfairly and erroneously undressed NCAA Tournament Committee Chair Craig Littlepage for excluding teams like Maryland, you have to believe Gary Williams will not let his team leave their fate up to the committee this year. They’ll get in.
http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaab/teams/maj/schedule
 Boston College (8-4, 1-0)
Simply put, I needed a fourth team here, Clemson can’t be taken seriously and BC has a more favorable schedule than Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech. After taking Maryland down before Christmas, the Eagles have a great chance to open the ACC season 7-0 before heading to an important clash at Duke. Boston College also avoids a road-trip to UNC this year, which will help their ACC record.
http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaab/teams/bam
Bubble teams
 Georgia Tech (10-3, 0-1)
A serious contender for an NCAA bid, the Yellow Jackets are a pretty strong-looking team. They’ll have a good chance to prove whether or not they belong in this category soon; Georgia Tech plays at Clemson, versus Duke and at North Carolina before January ends. The Jackets also have a good non-conference win with their November win over Memphis.
http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaab/teams/gah
 (23)Clemson (14-0, 0-0)
If there’s one lesson that has been beaten into coaches and Athletic Directors in the past few years, it’s that those playing a tough schedule will be rewarded and those playing an easy schedule will be punished. As a result, many teams have scheduled increasingly tougher out-of-conference slates; but not at Clemson. The Tigers have played the 235th hardest schedule (out of 336 Division I teams). In the ACC, only NC State (277), Virginia (279) and Miami (287) are worse. So what will the 14 non-conference wins do for Clemson when they only go 6-10 in conference play? Not much.
http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaab/teams/cbg/schedule
 Virginia Tech (9-4, 1-0)
All the signs so far point to Virginia Tech being a contender this year. But we’ve also seen this before. Last year, the Hokies were 9-4 in non-conference play but dropped their first six ACC games (including the early-season heartbreaker when Duke’s Sean Dockery hit a 43-foot runner to propel the Blue Devils 77-75). The team lost six of its last seven games, finishing with a 14-16 record. Virginia Tech only gets Duke once on its ACC slate, and this team could easily put together an 18-win season and nine or ten win conference record – but they’re a bubble team for sure.
http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaab/teams/vah/schedule
Outside looking in
Florida State (12-2, 0-0)
One team that took notice of the NCAA Tournament Committee’s emphasis on schedule strength was the Seminoles. FSU, formerly a classic example of the hot start, cold finish major, put top-15 teams Pittsburgh, Wisconsin and Florida on their schedule. After losses to the first two, the ‘Noles knocked off the reigning NCAA champs on December 3, and the addition of some difficult games paid off. Florida State has answered the call from every other team it has played (all weak), and has a favorable ACC schedule – they only play UNC and Duke once. Of course, the flip-side of missing two big games like that is that you miss out on a chance for a resume-defining win. Some questions linger: Can FSU win on the road? Will the Committee take eight ACC teams? Probably not.
http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaab/teams/fan/schedule
 Virginia (8-3, 1-0)
Two bad losses later and there’s just not much to be optimistic about right now. Our inability to win outside of Charlottesville taints every game we play. Our home wins feel cheap because it feels like we only won because we were playing in friendly confines. And every game away from JPJ is another opportunity to lose in dramatic fashion or lose in convincing fashion – but it certainly never seems like an opportunity to win. The front-line is not strong to begin with and has been weakened by Ryan Petinella’s injury. With Gonzaga and Stanford rolling into town, Virginia can polish off its non-conference record with some quality wins – but even if the Cavaliers win those, they’ll have a lot of work to do. Virginia needs to do serious damage in conference play and probably needs to go at least 4-4 in its eight conference road games to prove it can handle itself without ‘Hoo Crew cheering it on. Plus, a win over UNC or Duke (we also only play each team once) would help the cause quite a bit. As I said before, there’s no reason for teams to panic or give up on the season (many Virginia fans seem close to doing one of those things), but in the case of the Cavaliers, a concerted effort needs to be made and wins piled up to pass the other teams in the conference. Until the team turns it around, they aren’t in the Tournament.
http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaab/teams/vaf/schedule
The rest
Wake Forest (7-5, 0-1)
The Demon Deacons just aren’t there yet. There’s no question they’ll be back contending for ACC titles soon enough, but it won’t be this year. Kyle Visser has to find someone else to help him out or the team will continue to run in place. This is a team that will give a lot of folks in the ACC fits and will probably end up with a good enough record to make a run in the NIT.
http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaab/teams/wad
 NC State (9-4, 0-1)
I have been “fortunate” enough to see this team play twice on TV, thanks to ESPNU’s coverage. They aren’t deep (five players average over 29 minutes). They turn the ball over at an alarming clip. They don’t have a true point guard. The Wolfpack can shoot the lights out when they’re on, but it doesn’t matter most of the time because they give it away 25 times a game. They have 4-12 in-conference written all over them.
http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaab/teams/nat/schedule
 Miami (7-7, 1-0)
Coach Frank Haith has himself a little project here. The Hurricanes out-of-conference record has included losses to Binghamton, Buffalo and Cleveland State. The team has some pieces, but they have injuries and can’t ever seem to come together. Of course, they also beat Georgia Tech, the team’s only win over a school in a major conference. That just goes to show that in the ACC, even the cellar-dwellers have the capacity to make a run and leap to the top of the standings – and go from an easily forgotten team to an unforgettable tourney team.
http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaab/teams/mav/schedule
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