What a season it’s been in college football. No team seems able to hang on to a top-10 ranking. How about LSU, which has a chance to reach the #1 spot for a third time this season? Or South Florida and Oregon, two teams that at one point held the #2 place in the BCS but now, after monumental collapses, find themselves playing each other in the Brut Sun Bowl? Never before has the college football landscape seen such parity, and never before has the sport cried out for a playoff system that could resolve this BCS mess.
But since the Bowl Championship Series remains in place, college football fans will have to settle for a diverse palate of 32 games over 17 days in December and January. Only the truest of fans look forward to, say, the Memphis-Florida Atlantic battle in the R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl, so I’ll stick to the 10 most consequential post-season bowl battles (yes, Virginia, your team is in one of them).
#5 Rose Bowl
When: January 1
Where: Pasadena, CA
Who: Southern Cal (10-2; 7-2 Pac 10) vs. Illinois (9-3; 6-2 Big 10)
The Offenses:
The Illini have one of the best backs in the country in Rashard Mendenhall, a bruiser who averages over 6.0 yards per carry. The Illini are the fifth-best rushing team in the country, thanks to Mendenhall and dual-threat quarterback Isiah “Juice” Williams. They lack much of a passing game, however. Williams has thrown for just under 1,500 yards and 13 TDs on the year, and Illinois’ top wideout is Arrelious Benn, a true freshman. USC is extremely balanced and deep on offense. Three dynamic running backs - Chauncey Washington, Stafon Johnson, and Joe McKnight - have accounted for 1,878 yards and 16 scores between them. Three more Trojans - Fred Davis, Patrick Turner, and Vidal Hazelton - have combined for 1,898 receiving yards. QB John David Booty is no slouch, either; the pre-season Heisman hopeful completes passes at a 63% clip and has accounted for 21 scores in only nine games.
Edge: USC
The Defenses:
USC Coach Pete Carroll said before the season this might be the best defense he’s coached, and he might be right. The Trojans are in the top 10 nationally in rushing defense, passing defense, pass efficiency defense, total defense, scoring defense, and sacks. They allow under 16 points per game, and they have collected 40 sacks on the year. Illini pass rushers have 37 sacks and the team gives up under 20 points per contest. But when they can’t get to the quarterback, Illinois is vulnerable in the secondary: its 241 pass yards allowed per game is good for only 77th in the country.
Edge: USC
The Coaches:
Long known for his exceptional recruiting off the field but underachieving teams on it, Ron Zook finally is coach of a team that has equaled its potential. Zook is 13-22 as the Illini coach, but his program is showing signs of improvement. Carroll, on the other hand, is arguably the best college coach in the land. Under Carroll, Southern Cal has finished the year in the top four of both major polls an incredible five straight times and is 69-8 since that streak began in 2002. His Trojans are 4-1 in BCS Bowls, including two AP National Titles.
Big Edge: USC
The Intangibles:
The Illini have three wins over top-25 teams, including a win at then-#1 Ohio State, and they almost beat Missouri on a neutral field in week one. But a BCS bid for Illinois? Many feel - myself included - like the Illini back-doored their way into a BCS game, and they could show up with a “just happy to be here” attitude. Combined with the Trojans’ experience and near home-field advantage, the Rose Bowl has the most blowout potential of all the January 1 games.
Big Edge: USC
Key Match-up: Mendenhall (1,526 rush yards and 16 TDs) and Williams (774 and 7 TDs) against the fourth-best rush defense in the country (79.2 yards allowed per game).
The Pick: USC 31, Illinois 10
#4 FedEx Orange Bowl
When: January 3
Where: Miami, FL
Who: Virginia Tech (11-2; 7-1 ACC Coastal) vs. Kansas (11-1; 7-1 Big 12 North)
The Offenses:
Kansas has one of the most explosive offenses in the country, amounting nearly 500 yards of total offense a game. The Jayhawks are led by quarterback Todd Reesing (3,462 total yards, 34 total TDs). The Jayhawks are also strong on the ground; capitalizing on their dual-back system of Brandon McAnderson (1,067 yards, 16 scores) and Jake Sharp (799 yards and 7 TDs). Yet the difference on this end could be a resurgent Hokie attack; with a healthy two-quarterback system of Sean Glennon and Tyrod Taylor, VPI has averaged 34.8 points per game in its last five contests after averaging 23.9 in its first seven. The finally healthy combo of Glennon and Taylor combines for 268 yards of offense a game and makes the opposition prepare two different game plans.
Edge: Kansas
The Defenses:
Tech has one of the stingiest defenses in the land: fifth in total defense (293.3 ypg), and second in points allowed (15.5 points allowed per game). The “Lunch Pail” defense typifies Coach Frank Beamer’s aggressive approach on this side of the ball - 22 takeaways and 43 sacks prove the Hokies D is as strong as ever. Kansas’ defense has put up surprisingly impressive numbers on the season: seventh in rushing defense (91.4 yards allowed per game), fifth in scoring defense (16 points allowed per game), and first in turnover margin (+19, thanks to 25 takeaways). But look closer: Kansas has played only three teams with winning records on the year, with wins coming against Central Michigan and Texas A&M, and the late season loss to Missouri.
Edge: Virginia Tech
The Coaches:
Mangino won the Walter Camp Coach of the Year award this year, but this is the first season his Jayhawks have won more than seven games. Beamer, on the other hand, has an established program making its 15th straight bowl appearance (the Hokies are 6-8 in the post-season under Beamer, 1-3 in BCS Bowls). Beamer is 164-84-2 in his 21 years at the helm of arguably the ACC’s premier program.
Edge: Virginia Tech
The Intangibles:
Virginia Tech has won at least 10 games for the fourth straight season, but has failed to win the big game on the BCS stage. This is completely unfamiliar territory for Kansas, which hasn’t had this much success since the 1960’s. Tech has won 10 of its last 11, nine of those wins coming by double-digit point totals, while KU has had trouble adjusting to the national spotlight.
Slight Edge: Virginia Tech
Key Match-up: Reesing against the aggressive Tech secondary. Reesing is tied for fifth in fewest passes picked off (6), while the Hokies are tied for fifth in interceptions (21).
The Pick: Virginia Tech 31, Kansas 20
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