What a season it’s been in college football. No team seems able to hang on to a top-10 ranking. How about LSU, which has a chance to reach the #1 spot for a third time this season? Or South Florida and Oregon, two teams that at one point held the #2 place in the BCS but now, after monumental collapses, find themselves playing each other in the Brut Sun Bowl? Never before has the college football landscape seen such parity, and never before has the sport cried out for a playoff system that could resolve the BCS mess.
But since the Bowl Championship Series remains in place, college football fans will have to settle for a diverse palate of 32 games over 17 days in December and January. Only the truest of fans look forward to, say, the Memphis-Florida Atlantic battle in the R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl, so I’ll stick to the 10 most consequential post-season bowl battles (yes, Virginia, your team is in one of them).
Today, we round out the bottom five by taking a look at a trio of New Year's Day games.
#8 AT&T Cotton Bowl
When: January 1
Where: Dallas, TX
Who: Missouri (11-2; 7-1 Big 12 North) vs. Arkansas (8-4; 4-4 SEC West)
The Offenses:
This battle pits two Heisman finalists, fourth-place finisher Chase Daniel for Mizzou and second-time runner-up Darren McFadden for Arkansas. Daniel is 12th in the country in passing efficiency and fourth in total offense, while McFadden is fourth in rushing. The big difference between the offenses? Daniel has help in one of the best TEs in the country, Martin Rucker, running back Tony Temple, and all-purpose back Jeremy Maclin. Maclin is second in the country with over 208 total yards per game and set an NCAA Freshman record with 2,713 all-purpose yards. McFadden has fellow junior Felix Jones in the backfield, but Woo Pig Sooey owns only the 112th-best passing attack in the land.
Edge: Missouri
The Defenses:
Both teams are very average defensively. Missouri gives up 380 yards and 24.5 points per game; Arkansas allows around 358 and 25.6. The Razorbacks’ big advantage is in the secondary, as the Hogs D has held its opposing QBs to a measly 99.1 passer efficiency rating. Both defenses rely on ball disruption, evident by their high turnover margins. A defensive struggle is unlikely, as success on this side of the ball will be judged by big plays and field position.
Edge: Arkansas
The Coaches:
Despite the controversial, high profile luring of Bobby Petrino away from the NFL, the Razorbacks’ current coach is actually former Defensive Coordinator Reggie Herring. Herring could struggle to keep the team focused in a period of coaching upheaval. Gary Pinkel is in the midst of easily his best season as UM’s coach, as his previous best record with the Tigers was 8-5, although the program has steadily improved since his arrival on campus.
Slight Edge: Missouri
Intangibles:
Missouri went from #1 in the country and a “win and you’re in” championship scenario to missing a chance at BCS glory after a second loss to Oklahoma. The big question is, how will the Tigers handle that emotional let down? Arkansas will have to deal with its own issues, after the swift departure of former coach Houston Nutt and the controversial signing of Petrino. Herring will be the interim coach for the Cotton Bowl, but how will the Razorbacks handle the circus surrounding Petrino?
Edge: Arkansas
Key Match-up: Can a Missouri that allows 119 yards per game running contain the best running back duo on the country? McFadden (1,725 yards, 15 touchdowns) and partner-in-crime Jones (1,117 yards, 11 TDs, 9.1 yards per carry) are also second and third on the team in catches, respectively, and spearhead the third ranked rush offense in the land.
The Pick: Arkansas 41, Missouri 38
#7 Capital One Bowl
When: January 1
Where: Orlando, FL
Who: Michigan (8-4; 6-2 Big 10) vs. Florida (9-3; 5-3 SEC East)
The Offense:
Down in Gainesville, quarterback and Heisman winner Tim Tebow has put up some of the best numbers in college football history. He has passed for 3,132 yards, rushed for 838 more, and has accounted for 51 touchdowns, including the first 20/20 season (passing and rushing touchdowns) ever. The defending National Champs are versatile on offense, as nine different players have scored at least three touchdowns. For the Wolverines, this marks the final collegiate game for four-year starters Michigan QB Chad Henne (1,565 yards, 14 touchdowns) and RB Mike Hart (1,283 yards, 12 scores), who have had largely disappointing years due to injury. The Wolverines have two explosive receivers in Mario Manningham and Adrian Arrington (combined 125 catches, 1,825 yards, and 17 scores), but their passing attack does not compare to that of the Gators.
Edge: Florida
The Defense:
Despite its disastrous start, allowing 34 points to Appalachian State and 39 to Oregon in the first two week at home, Michigan’s defense has settled into somewhat of a groove. The Wolverines have allowed only 17 points per game, though part of this improvement is undoubtedly due to weak Big Ten schedule. The Gators and their young D have struggled at times, entering the bowl game allowing averages of 348 yards and 24.2 points per game. The Gators are especially weak against the pass (249 ypg, 89th in the country). Michigan also has the biggest playmaker on this side of the ball in LB Shawn Crable, who at 26.5 tackles for loss ranks second in the nation.
Slight Edge: Michigan
The Coaches:
The Wolverines have a chance to send much-maligned coach Lloyd Carr out on top, but not with a National Championship, as fans had hoped before the season. Carr was all but forced into retirement following his fourth straight defeat to Ohio State and Jim Tressel. Carr leaves behind a tremendous career that included a 121-40 overall mark, five Big Ten titles, and the 1997 National Championship. Meyer, on the other hand, is a new-school coach. Meyer is 31-7 at Florida (70-15 lifetime), and he is the mastermind behind the unique spread option offense. In his seventh year as a head coach, Meyer’s teams are 5-0 in bowl games.
Edge: Florida
Intangibles:
Florida’s offense revolves around getting rid of the ball quickly and using plenty of misdirection, two reason why it ranks eighth in the country in sacks allowed (12 on the year). The Gators also have a tremendous X-Factor on special teams in Brandon James, who averages 28.2 yards on kickoff returns and 17.8 on punt returns. Michigan also appears to be at an emotional disadvantage, as recent Wolverine teams have seemed unmotivated to play up to their potential.
Big Edge: Florida
Key Match-up: Carr vs. Meyer. One of the most creative offenses football has ever seen takes on a Michigan team notorious for struggling against the spread. Can Carr help design a game-plan to slow the likes of Tebow and WR Percy Harvin?
The Pick: Florida 45, Michigan 24
#6 Allstate Sugar Bowl
When: January 1
Where: New Orleans, LA
Who: Hawaii (12-0; 8-0 WAC) vs. Georgia (10-2; 6-2 SEC East)
The Offenses:
Long known for its explosive passing attack, the Warriors finally get to display their game on a national stage. QB and Heisman third-place finisher Colt Brennan has thrown an NCAA-record 131 touchdown passes in his career, including 38 this season. The Warriors average 46.2 points and over 500 yards per game offensively, good for first and third in the nation, respectively. Yet Georgia’s production is just as crucial to the team’s success. The Bulldogs are 10-0 this year when scoring at least 20 points. Georgia is 6-0 since the emergence of Knowshon Moreno as its full-time running back; Moreno has averaged 135.2 yards and 1.5 scores in that span.
Edge: Hawaii
The Defenses:
Georgia has a very solid all-around defense: 28th nationally against the rush (119.5 yards allowed per game), 24th against the pass (205 yapg), and 17th in scoring (21 points allowed per game). Hawaii plays aggressively on the defensive end, ranking ninth in sacks with 39 and fifth in tackles for loss with 102. However, the Warriors have struggled at times this year, allowing 35 or more points to otherwise inept offenses like San Jose State, Utah State, and Louisiana Tech.
Edge: Georgia
The Coaches:
June Jones once again has a solid Hawaii team that can throw the ball all over the place and score on anyone. The run-and-gun disciple is 75-40 at Hawaii, and has his Warriors playing the biggest game in school history. Mark Richt’s teams have been here before, however. Richt (71-19 at Georgia) has led his teams to six straight bowls, compiling a 4-2 record, including a 1-1 mark in the Sugar Bowl.
Edge: Georgia
Intangibles:
Last year, it was Boise State who crashed the BCS party; this year, WAC upstart Hawaii gets their shot. This Georgia team is up to the task of Goliath, especially considering that it has won six in a row and nine of 10, including four victories over ranked opponents during that stretch. Hawaii, generally used to playing in The Hawaii Bowl this time of year, has hit the road only twice since the beginning of October: an overtime win at San Jose State and a two-point victory over Nevada.
Edge: Too close to call
Key Match-up: Brennan against a Georgia pass defense that yields 205 yards per game through the air and has as many interceptions, eleven, as touchdowns allowed.
The Pick: Georgia 52, Hawaii 35
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