This week, Fanaticology will concentrate on the league races still taking shape.  A few of the teams listed above, namely George Mason, Western Kentucky, and San Diego, have already ruined the week for teams living dangerously on the bubble.  With their surprising victories in their respective conference tournaments, those squads added more teams to the bubble picture (Virginia Commonwealth and Southern Alabama the most notable) and effectively stole at least two bids from mid- and high-major hopefuls.

With this in mind, the conference tournaments now assume a greater sense of urgency for some would-be at-larges; teams like Minnesota and Virginia Tech that sit on the wrong side of the bubble lack any margin for error.  With the conference tournaments in full swing and bubbles soon to burst, here’s a snapshot of the tournament field before play Saturday night:
 

Atlantic Coast Conference (4)

Auto
North Carolina: 31-2 (14-2); 2 RPI, 3 SOS

Locks
Duke: 27-4 (13-3); 4 RPI, 10 SOS

Clemson: 22-8 (10-6); 22 RPI, 46 SOS

Miami: 21-10 (8-8); 32 SOS, 36 RPI
 

Atlantic 10 (3)

Auto
Saint Joseph’s: 21-11 (9-7); 42 RPI, 55 SOS

Lock
Xavier: 27-6 (14-2); 9 RPI, 20 SOS

Bubble
*Temple: 20-12 (11-5), 56 RPI, 49 SOS
The Owls, left for postseason dead after a 6-8 start, climb all the way into this edition of Fanaticology because of their inspired play in the A-10 Tournament.  In the second round, they beat a Charlotte team that, in the first round, trumped fellow bubble squad UMass.  So why Temple?  Temple scheduled tough out of conference (suffering losses to Tennessee, Florida, and Duke) and has good tournament success indicators (3-4 against the RPI top-50 and10 road/neutral wins).  Also, being the second best A-10 squad - then backing it up by making the league tournament final - has to be a plus.
 

Big East (7)

Auto
Georgetown: 27-4 (15-3); 7 RPI, 39 SOS

Locks
Louisville: 24-8 (14-4); 12 RPI, 5 SOS

Connecticut: 24-8 (13-5); 17 RPI, 30 SOS

Notre Dame: 24-7 (14-4); 25 RPI, 81 SOS

Marquette: 23-9 (11-7); 20 RPI, 19 SOS

Pittsburgh: 24-9 (10-8); 18 RPI, 32 SOS

West Virginia: 23-10 (11-7); 28 RPI, 40 SOS
 

Big 10 (5)

Auto
Wisconsin: 28-4 (16-2); 13 RPI, 69 SOS

Locks
Indiana: 25-7 (14-4); 21 RPI, 56 SOS

Purdue: 24-8 (15-3); 45 RPI, 113 SOS

Michigan State: 25-8 (12-6); 14 RPI, 50 SOS

Bubble
*Ohio State: 19-13 (10-8); 46 RPI, 14 SOS
I have quite a few qualms about putting the Buckeyes on this list (namely, the 2-10 record against the RPI top-50), but there’s nothing missing with this profile compared with, say, Baylor.  OSU has a few average-to-good non-league wins (neutral vs. Syracuse, at Cleveland State, home against Florida).  More importantly, they answered critics that said they couldn’t beat good teams, knocking off Purdue and Michigan State at the end of the year to put it on the right side of the bubble.
 

Big XII (6)

Auto

Texas: 27-5 (13-3); 5 RPI, 6 SOS

Locks

Kansas: 28-3 (13-3); 8 RPI, 60 SOS

Oklahoma: 22-11 (9-7); 26 RPI, 18 SOS

Bubble
Texas A&M: 23-9 (8-8); 41 RPI, 58 SOS
A&M all but secured its spot in the dance after making the Big XII semifinals against Kansas by beating Kansas State.  The Aggies have respectable “tournament success indicators”: record against the RPI top-50 (5-6) and record at road or neutral sites (8-5).  They also own a marquee win, an 80-63 thrashing of possible #1-seed Texas.

Baylor: 20-10 (9-7); 43 RPI, 43 SOS
Baylor is another one of those teams that will have trouble getting sleep after its double-overtime loss to lowly Colorado in the first round of the conference tourney.  The Bears have one good non-conference win (neutral over Notre Dame), which is sure not to impress the committee, but they finished strong (four wins in the last five regular season games) and have a 9-6 road/neutral record.

Kansas State: 19-11 (10-6); 50 RPI, 28 SOS
The second-round tournament loss to Texas A&M hurts as far as seeding goes - KSU is now virtually locked in as either the fourth or fifth team in the Big XII pecking order.  Don’t bet on NCAA success for the Michael Beasley- led bunch: a 5-8 mark at road or neutral sites reflects poorly, especially considering that their best away-from-home win was by two points, against Oklahoma, back in January.
 

Big West (1)

Auto
*Cal State Fullerton: 22-8 (12-4); 86 RPI, 207 SOS
 

Mid-American Conference (1)

Auto
Kent State: 27-6 (13-3); 24 RPI, 120 SOS

Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (1)

Auto
Morgan State: 21-9 (15-2); 115 RPI, 285 SOS
 

Missouri Valley (2)

In
[Drake]                                               

Bubble
Illinois State: 23-9 (13-5); 35 RPI, 73 SOS
Many thought the Redbirds needed a trip to the conference finals to ensure themselves of a bid, and that’s exactly how far they traveled before suffering a 30-point beating at the hands of Drake.  Most of ISU’s argument lies in its conference performance: second in the eighth-rated league nationally, with a 4-0 mark against the league’s third- and fourth-place finishers (Southern Illinois and Creighton).  Still, their unimpressive non-conference performance makes it difficult to consider them a “Lock.”
 

Mountain West (2)

Auto
Brigham Young: 27-6 (14-2); 23 RPI, 105 SOS

Lock
UNLV: 24-7 (12-4); 27 RPI, 78 SOS
 

Pacific 10 (6)

Auto
UCLA: 27-3 (16-2); 6 RPI, 22 SOS

Locks
Stanford: 24-6 (13-5); 18 RPI, 78 SOS

Washington State: 23-7 (11-7); 20 RPI, 46 SOS

Southern California: 20-10 (11-7); 31 RPI, 14 SOS

Bubble
*Oregon: 18-13 (9-9); 58 RPI, 33 SOS
The Ducks played a ton of top teams, going 4-9 against the RPI top-50, and picked up a key (and possibly tie-breaking) non-conference win at Kansas State.  They also recovered from a mid-season swoon to sweep the Arizona bubble teams in the season’s last week, which brought their combined record against U of A and ASU to 3-1.  Oregon will also benefit from finishing in a tie for fifth in the second-ranked conference in the nation.

*Arizona: 18-14 (8-10); 39 RPI, 2 SOS
How is it possible for a 14-loss team to finish seventh in its conference, be swept in the regular season by its rival and fifth-place finisher (Arizona State), and still manage to squeak into the tournament over its bubble companion?  For one, Arizona has suffered seven losses by five points or less.  They also scheduled the second-toughest slate in the land, and came out on top in a few key non-conference games (against Texas A&M, at UNLV).  The turmoil surrounding the program - injuries to stars Jerryd Bayless and Nic Wise, plus the season-long sabbatical of coach Lute Olson - is sure to give them a little leeway with the committee.

Southeastern Conference (5)

Auto
Tennessee: 28-3 (14-2); 1 RPI, 1 SOS

Locks
Vanderbilt: 26-7 (11-5); 11 RPI, 37 SOS

Mississippi State: 22-9 (12-4); 34 RPI, 54 SOS

Arkansas: 21-10 (9-7); 31 RPI, 34 SOS

Kentucky: 18-12 (12-4); 49 RPI, 16 SOS

Southland (1)

Auto
*Stephen F. Austin: 12-16 (9-7); 187 RPI, 174 SOS
 

Southwestern Athletic Conference (1)

Auto
*Mississippi Valley State: 14-15 (12-6); 239 RPI, 315 SOS
 

Sun Belt (2)

In
[Western Kentucky]

Bubble
Southern Alabama: 24-6 (16-2); 37 RPI, 124 SOS
A loss in the conference finals, and USA would have been OK.  But losing to Middle Tennessee State, whom they split with in the regular season series, puts the Jaguars’ chances in jeopardy.  Suddenly, the RPI looks average and the winning percentage is gaudy but not irresistible.  I give them the spot because they swept WKU, which ended up winning the Sun Belt Tourney, and perhaps more interestingly, because a November neutral-site win over San Diego now looks significantly more impressive.

Western Athletic Conference (1)

Auto
*Boise State: 23-8 (12-4); 93 RPI, 204 SOS
 

West Coast Conference (3)

In
[San Diego]

Locks
Gonzaga: 25-7 (13-1); 30 RPI, 93 SOS

Saint Mary’s: 24-6 (12-2); 38 RPI, 136 SOS

---