The Fanatic Magazine - A student-run sports magazine for the UVA fanatic

Fanaticology 2/28/08

Written by Michael Garcia

Friday, 29 February 2008

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Only three weeks and counting until the best Thursday of the year (sorry, Thanksgiving)! Almost as exciting for this Fanaticologist is the relative certainty of the NCAA Tournament field at this point. Sure, there are debates as always, but most teams are getting busy, to paraphrase Andy Dufresne, playing their way in or playing their way out.

The biggest wild cards this week are those pesky mid-majors: the Atlantic 10, Conference USA, and Missouri Valley all have two to three bids in flux, in addition to their projected conference champions. How those X-Factors (Dayton and Southern Illinois come to mind) perform down the stretch could open up more bids for BCS Conference schools – or steal bids from permanently Bubble-bound dreamers like Kentucky and Syracuse.

With all that in mind, let’s take a look at the current projected Field of 65.

America East (1)

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Maryland-Baltimore County: 19-7 (12-2); 86 RPI, 238 SOS

Atlantic Sun (1)

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Belmont: 19-8 (12-2); 95 RPI, 235 SOS

Atlantic Coast Conference (4)

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North Carolina: 26-2 (11-2); 3 RPI, 6 SOS

Locks
Duke: 24-3 (11-2); 5 RPI, 13 SOS

Clemson: 19-7 (8-5); 22 RPI, 28 SOS

Bubble
Miami: 18-8 (6-7); 26 SOS, 24 RPI
The ‘Canes could have secured a Lock spot with a road win against Clemson, but instead they need to finish strong with three winnable games remaining. The U still has a 4-3 record against the RPI top-50 and a 7-6 road/neutral mark - two numbers that the Committee will have a hard time resisting come judgment time.

Atlantic 10 (3)

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Xavier: 24-4 (12-1); 6 RPI, 15 SOS

Bubble
*Saint Joseph’s: 17-8 (8-4); 44 RPI, 88 SOS
Being the second-best team in a league where the eleventh-best team is still in contention has its benefits. Its best two non-league wins are (Villanova and Siena) are hardly impressive, but of its eight losses, only two have come by more than six points. A 10-5 road/neutral record is likely to swing the vote in St. Joe’s favor when it comes to Selection Sunday.

*Massachusetts: 18-9 (7-6); 38 RPI, 45 SOS
The computer numbers still look good, and a non-conference win against Houston looks better with each passing week. The conference record lacks a little bit, but UMass is a clear third in the A-10 pecking order right now. With a 6-6 record against the RPI top-100, the Minutemen may need to do some damage in the conference tournament to feel safe, however.

Big East (8)

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Georgetown: 23-4 (13-3); 10 RPI, 52 SOS

Locks
Louisville: 22-6 (12-3); 12 RPI, 12 SOS

Connecticut: 22-6 (11-4); 11 RPI, 17 SOS

Notre Dame: 21-5 (11-3); 21 RPI, 68 SOS

Marquette: 20-6 (11-5); 15 RPI, 21 SOS

Pittsburgh: 19-8 (8-7); 25 RPI, 29 SOS

West Virginia: 19-8 (9-6); 34 RPI, 56 SOS

Bubble
*Villanova: 17-10 (7-8); 58 RPI, 44 SOS
Nova gets the nod this week as the eighth team in, instead of Syracuse. Why? Quite simply, the ‘Cats are hotter than the Orange. They took two of three from WVU, UConn, and Marquette, upping their record against the RPI top-50 to 4-6, a much better mark than Syracuse’s. The Committee might also give them a pass for losing two games, against NC State and Georgetown, where dubious calls handed Nova a loss.

Big Sky (1)

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Portland State: 16-9 (11-2); 116 RPI, 227 SOS

Big South (1)

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Winthrop: 17-10 (10-3); 125 RPI, 190 SOS

Big 10 (4)

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Wisconsin: 23-4 (13-2); 13 RPI, 47 SOS

Locks
Purdue: 22-6 (13-2); 27 RPI, 89 SOS

Indiana: 24-4 (13-2); 18 RPI, 63 SOS

Michigan State: 22-5 (10-4); 16 RPI, 57 SOS

Big XII (6)

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Texas: 23-4 (11-2); 4 RPI, 3 SOS

Locks
Kansas: 24-3 (10-3); 8 RPI, 66 SOS

Kansas State: 17-9 (8-5); 42 RPI, 18 SOS

Baylor: 18-8 (7-6); 33 RPI, 39 SOS

Bubble
Texas A&M: 20-7 (7-6); 43 RPI, 77 SOS
The Aggies find themselves relegated to the Bubble because of weak computer numbers, and that’s about it. They have mostly excusable losses, and maintaining a tie for fourth in the Big XII standings is crucial. They have respectable records against RPI top-50 competition (3-4) and on road or neutral sites (5-4). A&M needs at least one of its last three (at Oklahoma, at Baylor, Kansas) plus a win in the conference tournament to solidify a berth.

Oklahoma: 18-10 (6-7); 31 RPI, 8 SOS
The anti-Texas A&M, Oklahoma keeps its spot on this list thanks to its impressive computer numbers. The Sooners are in peril, however, having lost seven of 13 and five of its seven conference road games (including head-scratchers at Colorado and Nebraska). But a sweep of Baylor and some really solid non-conference wins (Arkansas in Norman, Gonzaga and WVU at neutral sites) still look pretty good from here.

Big West (1)

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Cal State Northridge: 17-7 (10-2); 119 RPI, 258 SOS

Colonial Athletic Association (1)

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Virginia Commonwealth: 22-6 (14-3); 46 RPI, 147 SOS

Conference USA (1)

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Memphis: 27-1 (13-0); 2 RPI, 14 SOS

Horizon League (1)

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Butler: 25-3 (14-2); 19 RPI, 131 SOS

Ivy League (1)

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Cornell: 17-5 (10-0); 71 RPI, 217 SOS

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (1)

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Rider: 19-9 (11-5); 115 RPI, 236 SOS

Mid-American Conference (1)

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Kent State: 23-5 (11-2); 28 RPI, 134 SOS

Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (1)

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Morgan State: 17-9 (13-2); 135 RPI, 269 SOS

Missouri Valley (3)

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Drake: 21-3 (14-2); 15 RPI, 87 SOS

Bubble
*Illinois State: 20-8 (12-5); 36 RPI, 81 SOS
Though the BracketBuster win over Wright State is hardly a great win, it does several things for the Redbirds. The computer numbers look better now, they have won seven of 10, and their record against the RPI top-100 improved to 6-5. Saturday’s trip to Carbondale to face Southern Illinois is a virtual elimination game, unless both in-state rivals make it to the conference tournament final.

*Southern Illinois: 17-12 (11-6); 40 RPI, 10 SOS
Not very many people have the Salukis on their Bracketology maps, but I think they will surprise those experts and sneak in this year. They own non-conference wins against Mississippi State, St. Mary’s, and Western Kentucky despite a poor 5-10 road/neutral record. The bottom line is that SIU is on fire, playing its way into the Tournament with eight wins in 10 games, including four wins against the RPI top-100.

Mountain West (2)

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Brigham Young: 22-6 (11-2); 23 RPI, 87 SOS

Lock
UNLV: 20-6 (10-3); 29 RPI, 82 SOS

Northeast Conference (1)

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Robert Morris: 23-6 (14-2); 126 RPI, 320 SOS

Ohio Valley Conference (1)

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Austin Peay: 19-10 (14-4); 110 RPI, 219 SOS

Pacific 10 (5)

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UCLA: 23-3 (12-2); 9 RPI, 36 SOS

Locks
Stanford: 22-4 (11-3); 20 RPI, 97 SOS

Washington State: 21-6 (9-6); 24 RPI, 53 SOS

Arizona: 16-10 (7-7); 17 RPI, 1 SOS

Southern California: 17-9 (8-6); 39 RPI, 23 SOS

Patriot League (1)

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*Navy: 16-12 (9-4); 200 RPI, 306 SOS

Southeastern Conference (5)

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Tennessee: 24-3 (11-2); 1 RPI, 2 SOS

Locks
Vanderbilt: 24-4 (9-4); 7 RPI, 37 SOS

Mississippi State: 19-8 (10-3); 41 RPI, 59 SOS

Arkansas: 18-9 (7-6); 45 RPI, 50 SOS

Bubble
Florida: 21-7 (8-5); 51 RPI, 113 SOS
The Gators have everything you want in an at-large hopeful’s record, but their computer numbers are keeping them from Lock status. Their other issue is a 1-5 record against the RPI top-50. The three remaining games, however, will make or break the Gators’ chances: Mississippi State, Tennessee, at Kentucky. Win two plus one in the in SEC Tourney and they have themselves a bid.

*Kentucky: 16-10 (10-3); 62 RPI, 16 SOS
Who would have thought that after that kind of start (5-6, including home losses to Gardner-Webb and San Diego and an 0-4 record against the RPI top-100) the Wildcats would be in this discussion? UK has played itself onto the right side of the bubble, thanks to a 4-3 record against the RPI top-50 since that start and nine wins in its last 10 games overall. It has wins against Vandy and Tennessee, and the Committee will have a hard time overlooking that conference record.

Southern Conference (1)

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Davidson: 21-6 (19-0); 54 RPI, 153 SOS

Southland (1)

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Lamar: 14-8 (12-1); 121 RPI, 192 SOS

Southwestern Athletic Conference (1)

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Alabama State: 12-9 (11-3), 233 RPI, 337 SOS

Summit League (1)

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Oral Roberts: 19-7 (15-1); 59 RPI, 145 SOS

Sun Belt (2)

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Western Kentucky: 21-6 (15-2); 53 RPI, 155 SOS

Bubble
South Alabama: 21-5 (14-2); 32 RPI, 137 SOS
A huge win on the road against Sun Belt leader WKU almost solidifies USA’s at-large hopes. The Jaguars have a 3-3 record against the RPI top-100 and an 8-5 road/neutral mark. South Alabama’s five losses have come by a total of 19 points, and the team took Vanderbilt into double overtime before succumbing on the road back in November. The few holes in this at-large big are easy to forgive.