Welcome to the second installment of Fanaticology: the Fanatic Magazine’s weekly breakdown of the NCAA Tournament field. We’ve seen a bit of a shake-up so far, but hey, that’s what makes prognosticating fun, right?
America East (1)
Maryland-Baltimore County: 14-7 (7-2); 99 RPI, 227 SOS
The Retrievers picked up a big win on Saturday, 75-73 at Vermont, giving them a season sweep of the conference’s glamour program.
Atlantic Sun (1)
Jacksonville: 11-9 (8-1); 166 RPI, 250 SOS
The Dolphins have recovered from an eight-game losing streak earlier in the year to win nine of ten since.
Atlantic Coast Conference (5)
Duke: 20-1 (8-0); 4 RPI, 14 SOS
After a year masquerading as an average big-conference program, Duke is Duke again.
North Carolina: 21-2 (6-2); 3 RPI, 5 SOS
Two tough losses at home don’t mean anything to the Selection Committee. I can’t wait to watch them against Duke with Lawson available.
Clemson: 15-5 (4-3); 27 RPI, 25 SOS
The only other lock besides Duke and UNC, the Tigers recovered with a much-needed victory over BC. Only three games against top-50 RPI teams remain.
North Carolina State: 15-7 (4-4); 40 RPI, 30 SOS
NC State has rallied to become a near-lock for an at-large berth. Being the fourth-best team in the #1 RPI conference in the country has its advantages.
Maryland: 14-8 (4-3); 66 RPI, 21 SOS
Begrudgingly, I’ll give Maryland a spot as one of the last four teams in. The Terps have to stay consistent to keep that RPI from dangerously low levels.
Atlantic 10 (4)
Xavier: 18-4 (6-1); 14 RPI, 42 SOS
Xavier has some bad losses, but that’s nothing that can’t be mitigated considering its six wins against top-50 RPI competition.
Dayton: 16-5 (4-4); 13 RPI, 8 SOS
The Flyers have lost four of six following a 13-game winning streak, but only one of those losses is to a sub-30 RPI foe.
Rhode Island: 19-3 (5-2); 21 RPI, 122 SOS
Three of the Rams’ five top-100 RPI wins have come on the road or at a neutral site. Six such games remain on the slate, however.
Massachusetts: 14-7 (3-4); 26 RPI, 12 SOS
The Minutemen need to raise that conference record in order to solidify their chances, but if computer numbers are to mean anything, this team has to merit at least an 11 seed.
Big East (8)
Georgetown: 19-2 (9-1); 8 RPI, 59 SOS
Georgetown hasn’t dominated, but Hoya Saxa simply continues to win and has extended its lead to two games over Notre Dame.
Connecticut: 16-5 (6-3); 16 RPI, 7 SOS
Five straight wins - all against top-100 RPI teams, four against top-50 RPI teams, and two on the road - move this team into top-four seed territory.
Marquette: 15-5 (6-4); 29 RPI, 39 SOS
One of the nation’s truly overrated teams, the Golden Eagles have only three wins against the top-50 RPI.
Pittsburgh: 16-5 (5-4); 22 RPI, 44 SOS
The Panthers have struggled recently, thanks to injury. This team needs to get to eight or nine conference wins to sew up a spot, but shouldn’t go far in the Tourney.
Notre Dame: 16-4 (6-2); 43 RPI, 102 SOS
The Irish had better keep its record looking good with those computer numbers; with six top-50 RPI games remaining, that’s easier said than done.
Louisville: 17-6 (7-3); 24 RPI, 19 SOS
A preseason National Title contender, the Cardinals haven’t quite lived up to the hype. Eight wins in its last 10 games should be just the beginning for this bunch.
Syracuse: 16-7 (6-4); 36 RPI, 6 SOS
Most people don’t like the Orange, but I still have to give it to them - especially since the team is playing well in the absence of its best upperclassman, Eric Devendorf.
West Virginia: 15-6 (5-4); 41 RPI, 48 SOS
The Mountaineers suffered their first loss to a team outside the top-50 RPI, scoring only 39 points against Cincy. Bob Huggins will have his alma mater dancing in March, though.
Big Sky (1)
Portland State: 11-8 (6-2); 147 RPI, 211 SOS
Thursday’s showdown with second-place Northern Arizona looms as the possible deciding game for the Big Sky’s regular season crown.
Big South (1)
North Carolina Asheville: 14-4 (7-0); 76 RPI, 221 SOS
The Bulldogs have won 10 of 11, and have performed admirably in losses at Virginia Tech, Tennessee, and North Carolina.
Big 10 (5)
Indiana: 18-3 (7-1); 39 RPI, 125 SOS
The Hoosiers’ three losses have come to teams currently ranked 14, 15 and 16 in the RPI. Their quality as a team is not in doubt, but their status as an elite program is.
Michigan State: 19-3 (7-2); 9 RPI, 38 SOS
Tom Izzo has to send a message to his troops: no more bad losses. MSU’s only conference Ls have come at Iowa (139 RPI) and at Penn State (128).
Ohio State: 16-7 (7-3); 34 RPI, 29 SOS
We’ll learn a lot about this Buckeyes team quickly: five of the team’s last eight conference games are against top-50 RPI foes, and OSU has yet to face Indiana.
Wisconsin: 18-3 (8-1); 15 RPI, 62 SOS
Bo Ryan’s Badgers have decided to stick my comments last week to me, with quality wins against Indiana and Minnesota. No bad losses means this team is looking at a strong seed.
Purdue: 18-5 (9-1); 49 RPI, 123 SOS
Purdue is the surprise frontrunner in the nation’s most predictable major conference. Only four games remain against the Big 10’s other Big Four for this young bunch.
Big XII (6)
Kansas: 21-1 (7-1); 5 RPI, 49 SOS
Five of the team’s conference wins have come by at least 19 points. They’re so much better than the rest of the conference, it’s almost a joke.
Kansas State: 14-5 (5-1); 33 RPI, 22 SOS
Michael Beasley is this year’s Kevin Durant; a freshman leading his team to an NCAA Tournament bid.
Baylor: 15-5 (4-2); 35 RPI, 64 SOS
Two straight losses and a tough schedule ahead - is it possible that Baylor slips to the wrong side of the bubble?
Texas: 16-4 (4-2); 11 RPI, 9 SOS
The Longhorns have a two-point win at UCLA and a 21-point win at a neutral site against Tennessee to their credit (yikes!). The February 11 game against Kansas might be the best Big XII game all year.
Oklahoma: 15-6 (3-3); 30 RPI, 15 SOS
The Sooners need to stay afloat (say, go .500 in conference) to keep that bid in tact. The computer numbers are good enough, for now.
Texas A&M: 18-4 (5-3); 25 RPI, 79 SOS
Mark Turgeon’s group has turned it around with consecutive wins against Texas and Oklahoma. Now, can they keep it up?
Big West (1)
Cal State Northridge: 14-5 (7-1); 105 RPI, 159 SOS
The Matadors slipped at home against Cal State Fullerton, and the Titans now lurk only a half-game behind CSN in the league standings.
Colonial Athletic Association (2)
Virginia Commonwealth: 16-5 (9-2); 58 RPI, 157 SOS
Both the Rams and the team below are undefeated at home; it’s too bad for fans of the CAA that GMU won’t make a trip to Richmond this year.
George Mason: 16-6 (8-3); 53 RPI, 117 SOS
The Patriots are squarely on the bubble, but have two great non-conference wins (Dayton and Kansas State) that - for now - put them as one of the last four teams in.
Conference USA (2)
Memphis: 21-0 (7-0); 2 RPI, 26 SOS
The debate about Memphis is this: should the Tigers lose before they make the Tournament? A February 23 date with Tennessee might be their last chance to do so.
Horizon League (1)
Butler: 20-2 (9-2); 19 RPI, 145 SOS
The Bulldogs’ schedule abounds with average-to-good non-conference wins, which means they’re a lock for the tournament. They’ve put up a combined 94 points in their two losses.
Ivy League (1)
Cornell: 11-5 (4-0); 72 RPI 169 SOS
The Big Red have won its last three conference games, all on the road, by an average of 16.6 points per game. Cornell looks to be the best Ivy League team this year.
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (1)
Rider: 17-6 (10-2); 106 RPI, 261 SOS
The Broncs took care of MAAC second-place team Siena on Saturday, and the Saints now stand a full game behind Rider in the league standings. Rider has won nine straight conference contests.
Mid-American Conference (1)
Kent State: 17-5 (6-2); 47 RPI, 130 SOS
A three-point road loss against Toledo severely hurts the Golden Flashes’ chances at an at-large bid. Instead, they’ll have to fight their way through a very deep MAC East.
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (1)
Morgan State: 12-8 (8-1); 157 RPI, 273 SOS
Tied with Hampton and a game ahead of Norfolk State, Morgan State gets the nod here by virtue of its January 28 win at HU. The Golden Bears have won six straight.
Missouri Valley (2)
Drake: 19-1 (12-0); 6 RPI, 72 SOS
The MVC needs quick bursts from either Illinois State or Creighton to receive multiple bids. The question surrounding Drake is where they should be seeded, given their dearth of impressive out-of-conference victories.
Creighton: 15-6 (7-5); 51 RPI, 80 SOS
The very last team in at this point, I had to debate between this team, St. Joe’s, Houston, and a number of undeserving ACC squads. CU gets the nod because it beat St. Joe’s, but they have to start winning some games to feel any sort of security.
Mountain West (2)
Nevada-Las Vegas: 16-4 (6-1); 28 RPI, 70 SOS
Not expected to contend after losing almost its entire starting lineup from last year, UNLV is nonetheless basically assured of a ticket to The Dance because of strong computer numbers.
Brigham Young: 17-5 (6-1); 45 RPI, 120 SOS
The Cougars can’t wait to avenge a 70-41 defeat to UNLV at home on February 16. They have few other road blocks on the road to the MWC regular season crown.
Northeast Conference (1)
Sacred Heart: 13-10 (10-2); 175 RPI, 265 SOS
After an ugly six-game losing streak to open the season, Sacred Heart has ridden a seven-game win streak to the top of the NEC standings. Three teams loom in second place with 8-2 conference records.
Ohio Valley Conference (1)
Austin Peay: 15-9 (11-3); 123 RPI, 201 SOS
The Governors look for a return to The Dance after a short hiatus. AP’s January 31 win against Murray State split the series with MSU and gave it the upper hand for the OVC regular season crown.
Pacific 10 (5)
UCLA: 19-2 (8-1); 10 RPI, 32 SOS
Can the Bruins look to three-peat - as in, make the Final 4 for the third straight year? The odds of that look surprisingly good at this point.
Washington State: 17-4 (5-4); 23 RPI, 71 SOS
A preseason Final Four pick for many, this crew has struggled more than one might suspect with consecutive home losses to Cal and Stanford.
Arizona: 14-7 (5-4); 7 RPI, 1 SOS
The Wildcats always seem to play one of the toughest schedules in the nation; this year, like last year, they’re #1. Seven conference wins will sew it up for this bunch.
Southern California: 14-7 (5-4); 42 RPI, 20 SOS
The Trojans have put a season-opening loss to Mercer behind them, winning five of their last six contests.
Stanford: 18-3 (7-2); 18 RPI, 84 SOS
The surprise second-place team of the Pac-10 has won 14 of 16 and has only four games against top-50 RPI teams remaining.
Patriot League (1)
Lafayette: 14-8 (5-2); 142 RPI, 228 SOS
A home loss to American signals two Ls in three games for the Leopards, who face stiff competition from six other teams in the eight-team conference.
Southeastern Conference (6)
Tennessee: 19-2 (7-1); 1 RPI, 2 SOS
That February match-up against Memphis should be fun, huh?
Florida: 18-5 (5-3); 46 RPI, 118 SOS
Consecutive road losses to Arkansas and Tennessee don’t seem bad until you consider that the total point margin was 41 points.
Mississippi: 16-4 (3-4); 20 RPI, 53 SOS
The Rebels are falling fast after winning their first 13, including losses to non-contenders Auburn and South Carolina. No top-25 RPI games remain, however.
Mississippi State: 14-7 (5-2); 59 RPI, 55 SOS
Road tests at Mississippi, Florida, and Vandy will show us what this team - which still has questionable computer numbers - is made of.
Vanderbilt: 18-4 (3-4); 12 RPI, 46 SOS
Only one game remains against a top-50 RPI team on the road, which is good news for a team that is 2-4 (with two very unimpressive wins) in true road contests.
Arkansas: 16-5 (5-2); 37 RPI, 57 SOS
The Hogs are 6-4 against top-100 RPI competition, which means we’ll see a little more inconsistency out of this surprise bunch.
Southern Conference (1)
Davidson: 14-6 (13-0); 55 RPI, 131 SOS
Davidson has won each of its conference home games by at least 13 points, which is good news considering it plays five of its next seven on its own court.
Southland (1)
Lamar: 7-8 (5-1); 177 RPI, 152 SOS
The Cardinals are still in first despite almost-bubble teams Sam Houston State and Stephen F. Austin, on the doorstep.
Southwestern Athletic Conference (1)
Alabama State: 9-7 (8-1), 219 RPI, 334 SOS
The Hornets have stretched their win streak to seven, winning by an average margin of 15.4 points per game. They now stand two games ahead of second-place Southern.
Summit League (1)
Oral Roberts: 14-5 (10-0); 54 RPI, 159 SOS
If the Golden Eagles run the table - including a Bracket Buster game against Creighton - they have an outside shot at an at-large berth.
Sun Belt (1)
Southern Alabama: 16-4 (10-1); 32 RPI, 109 SOS
The Jags took a step back with a two-point loss at North Texas, but still figure in the at-large mix. Mid-major lovers will circle the February 21 date at Western Kentucky on their calendars.
Western Athletic Conference (1)
Utah State: 15-6 (6-1); 89 RPI, 193 SOS
USU has struggled on the road (no wins against top-300 RPI competition), which is bad news for its closing schedule (six road trips in its last nine games).
West Coast Conference (2)
Gonzaga: 17-6 (6-1); 31 RPI, 45 SOS
The Zags dropped an overtime contest at St. Mary’s, which does only minor damage to their seeding hopes. March 1’s rematach against the Gaels in Spokane is a must-watch.
Saint Mary’s: 18-3 (6-1); 17 RPI, 90 SOS
One of college basketball’s best stories early on, the win over Gonzaga has solidified the Gaels’ Tournament hopes. They must watch out for San Diego, however, which is also 6-1 in the WCC.
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