The Fanatic Magazine - A student-run sports magazine for the UVA fanatic

Fanaticology: 3/3/08

Written by Michael Garcia

Friday, 07 March 2008

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This is it: the stretch run for the college basketball regular season. Conference Tournaments have already begun for some low- and mid-major leagues, and one team, Cornell, has already sealed an invite to the Dance.

Most commentators have bemoaned the relative dearth of teams playing their way into the field; for every Kentucky, there seems to be two or three Marylands. But the truth is, it’s always this way. Picking the field is never an easy task, and there will always be pleasant surprises and broken hearts on Selection Sunday. It’s not that, as some have speculated, this year’s field is particularly weak or murky. It’s more that the way certain teams have oscillated on and off the bubble has been particularly dramatic (See Maryland’s stunning collapse against Clemson).

As always, an asterisk * represents a team new to the projected field. A team listed in brackets has already clinched a spot in the tournament. With all this in mind, let’s take a look at the current projected field of 65.

America East (1)

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Maryland-Baltimore County: 20-8 (13-3); 92 RPI, 261 SOS

Atlantic Sun (1)

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Belmont: 22-8 (14-2); 89 RPI, 245 SOS

Atlantic Coast Conference (4)

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North Carolina: 28-2 (13-2); 2 RPI, 5 SOS

Locks
Duke: 26-3 (13-2); 4 RPI, 15 SOS

Clemson: 20-7 (9-5); 20 RPI, 31 SOS

Miami: 20-8 (8-7); 26 SOS, 30 RPI

Atlantic 10 (3)

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Xavier: 25-4 (13-1); 6 RPI, 27 SOS

Bubble
Massachusetts: 20-9 (9-6); 38 RPI, 58 SOS
Could the Minutemen finally be safe? UMass has won five in a row after losing four of 11 and jeopardizing their at-large chances. Non-conference wins against Houston and at Syracuse are good for, if nothing else, bubble tiebreakers. At 6-6, UMass sports a solid mark against the RPI top-100. They have to be the second choice out of the A-10.

*Dayton: 19-9 (7-8); 35 RPI, 39 SOS
And so my on-again, off-again relationship with the Flyers continues. Two straight wins have put Dayton close to .500 in conference, although they’re still toiling in eighth place. But DU has two things no other mid-major can match: non-conference wins over Pitt (before the injury issues) and at Louisville, and a whopping 13 games against RPI top-100 competition (with a respectable 8-5 record in those games). They have to perform in the A-10 Tourney to assure themselves of a bid, however.

Big East (7)

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Georgetown: 24-4 (14-3); 9 RPI, 57 SOS

Locks
Louisville: 24-6 (14-3); 11 RPI, 9 SOS

Connecticut: 23-6 (12-4); 13 RPI, 17 SOS

Notre Dame: 23-6 (13-4); 19 RPI, 70 SOS

Marquette: 21-7 (12-6); 21 RPI, 27 SOS

Pittsburgh: 20-9 (9-8); 25 RPI, 22 SOS

West Virginia: 20-9 (10-7); 37 RPI, 49 SOS

Big Sky (1)

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Portland State: 19-9 (14-2); 98 RPI, 234 SOS

Big South (1)

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Winthrop: 18-11 (10-4); 132 RPI, 184 SOS

Big 10 (4)

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Wisconsin: 25-4 (15-2); 12 RPI, 45 SOS

Locks
Indiana: 25-5 (14-3); 16 RPI, 47 SOS

Purdue: 23-7 (14-3); 32 RPI, 92 SOS

Michigan State: 23-6 (11-5); 14 RPI, 41 SOS

Big XII (6)

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Texas: 24-5 (12-3); 5 RPI, 4 SOS

Locks

Kansas: 26-3 (12-3); 10 RPI, 71 SOS

Oklahoma: 20-10 (8-7); 27 RPI, 10 SOS

Kansas State: 18-10 (9-6); 46 RPI, 18 SOS

Bubble
Baylor: 19-9 (8-7); 39 RPI, 36 SOS
Both Baylor and Texas A&M are on the bubble, but neither should be too worried. The Bears are 6-9 against the RPI top-100 and 8-5 at road or neutral sites, which are acceptable if not favorable numbers for an at-large hopeful. They need to close the season with a sweep of Texas Tech and win their first conference tournament game to assure themselves of a spot, but the overall resume here is good enough.

Texas A&M: 21-8 (8-7); 42 RPI, 67 SOS
The Aggies stuttered down the stretch at some points, and recently suffered a humiliating 64-37 loss to Oklahoma where they went over 16 minutes without scoring a single point. But they are 4-6 against the RPI top-50 and have only one bad loss (Nebraska). A late November win against Ohio State could prove very useful in a tiebreaker scenario.

Big West (1)

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Cal State Northridge: 18-8 (11-3); 104 RPI, 239 SOS

Colonial Athletic Association (1)

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Virginia Commonwealth: 23-6 (15-3); 44 RPI, 149 SOS

Conference USA (2)

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Memphis: 29-1 (15-0); 3 RPI, 28 SOS

Bubble
*Alabama-Birmingham: 22-8 (12-3); 53 RPI, 113
Here’s another team that has snuck up on an at-large bid. UAB owns a 3-3 mark against the RPI top-100 and is 8-7 away from home. Moreover, the Blazers have wins against fellow bubble contenders Houston and Kentucky. They have also come on strong to play their way into the conversation, winning seven of eight and 20 of 25 since an early-season disaster at the Old Spice Classic.

Horizon League (1)

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Butler: 27-3 (16-2); 18 RPI, 136 SOS

Ivy League (1)

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[Cornell]: 19-5 (12-0); 68 RPI, 230 SOS

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (1)

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Rider: 21-9 (13-5); 120 RPI, 258 SOS

Mid-American Conference (1)

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Kent State: 24-6 (12-3); 31 RPI, 132 SOS

Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (1)

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Morgan State: 18-9 (14-2); 127 RPI, 277 SOS

Missouri Valley (2)

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Drake: 23-4 (15-3); 15 RPI, 85 SOS

Bubble
Illinois State: 21-8 (13-5); 34 RPI, 77 SOS
The Redbirds finished second in the MVC by two games over Southern Illinois (although they did finish two games behind first-place Drake), making them the uncontested second team in the conference pecking order. Most of ISU’s argument lies in its conference performance: second in the No. 8 RPI conference, with a 4-0 mark against the league’s third- and fourth-place finishers. A trip to the MVC semis should be enough, though the Redbirds shouldn’t expect a single-digit seed.

Mountain West (3)

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Brigham Young: 24-6 (13-2); 23 RPI, 91 SOS

Lock
UNLV: 21-7 (11-4); 29 RPI, 69 SOS

Bubble
*New Mexico: 23-7 (10-5); 48 RPI, 130 SOS
The Lobos have won seven of eight to climb into contention for an at-large berth. They have a solid but unspectacular profile: a 2-4 record against the RPI top-50 and 7-5 road/neutral mark complement mediocre computer numbers. The reason they make it now is the record - solid in conference and pretty impressive overall. A win against UNLV in the MWC Tourney semi-finals would put UNM in fairly comfortable territory.

Northeast Conference (1)

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Robert Morris: 25-6 (16-2); 117 RPI, 319 SOS

Ohio Valley Conference (1)

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Austin Peay: 22-10 (16-4); 87 RPI, 198 SOS

Pacific 10 (6)

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UCLA: 25-3 (14-2); 7 RPI, 34 SOS

Locks
Stanford: 24-4 (13-3); 17 RPI, 93 SOS

Washington State: 22-7 (10-7); 22 RPI, 42 SOS

Southern California: 18-10 (9-7); 40 RPI, 21 SOS

Bubble
Arizona: 16-12 (7-9); 24 RPI, 1 SOS
Unlike their nickname-sharing companions in Lexington, Tuscon’s version of the Wildcats have officially hit free-fall mode. Zona has dropped six of eight heading into a road trip against both of the Oregon schools. They will get a pass because of injuries to Jerryd Bayless and Nic Wise, and also because they played the toughest schedule in the nation. But they will be extremely anxious on Selection Sunday if they lose to Oregon and again in the Pac-10 Tourney first round.

*Arizona State: 18-10 (8-8); 69 RPI, 60 SOS
Yes, the computer numbers are a little (OK, extremely) suspect. But everything else about the Sun Devils looks tournament-worthy. They are 5-6 against the RPI top-50 and have some really impressive wins against Stanford and, out of the league, Xavier. Perhaps most importantly, ASU swept in-state rival Arizona, which could have huge implications if the two teams continue their respective trajectories.

Patriot League (1)

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*American: 19-11 (10-4); 99 RPI, 165 SOS

Southeastern Conference (6)

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Tennessee: 26-3 (13-2); 1 RPI, 2 SOS

Locks
Vanderbilt: 25-5 (10-5); 8 RPI, 26 SOS

Mississippi State: 20-9 (11-4); 36 RPI, 44 SOS

Bubble
Arkansas: 19-10 (8-7); 41 RPI, 37 SOS
The Razorbacks have ended the season on a shaky note - they have lost three of four, including on at fellow bubble team Mississippi - but everything else looks good. Arkansas boasts a 5-5 mark against the RPI top-50, second place in a decent division, and a few key non-conference wins (VCU and Baylor at neutral sites). Also important is a home win against Florida, which could serve as a tiebreaker of sorts on Selection Sunday.

Kentucky: 17-11 (11-4); 47 RPI, 13 SOS
UK keeps playing its way closer and closer to a bid, and Sunday’s showdown with Florida looms as an elimination game. Everyone thought the Cats would wilt without stud frosh Pat Patterson, but they almost upset Tennessee on the road and then dispatched South Carolina. Kentucky does have a safety net: no team with a 10-6 or better record in SEC play has ever missed the NCAA Tournament. However, the cats must be weary of the selection committee looking past key SEC wins with Patterson in the lineup, who will not play in March.

*Mississippi: 20-9 (6-9); 43 RPI, 59 SOS
Ole Miss gets my vote this week as the “last team in.” They have played miserably within the SEC, but they are one win in Athens away from 7-9 in conference play - which the Committee would allow if they corroborated it with a strong performance in the league tourney. Like Arkansas, they have a potentially tiebreaking win against Florida; unlike the Hogs, they have a really impressive non-conference resume: a 13-0 record that includes a neutral court win over Clemson and home wins against Southern Alabama and New Mexico.