This week marks the first installment of Fanaticology: the Fanatic Magazine’s weekly breakdown of the NCAA Tournament field. With less than two months until this writer’s favorite time of year, I project the field of 65 before the Committee evens begins its deliberations.
America East (1)
Binghamton: 10-10 (6-2); 226 RPI, 304 SOS
The Bearcats have won five in a row after a 1-7 start. The school famous as Tony Kornheiser’s alma mater has two big games against the two teams tied for second in the conference, Vermont and Maryland-Baltimore County.
Atlantic Sun (1)
Jacksonville: 9-9 (6-1); 173 RPI, 234 SOS
The Dolphins have recovered from an eight-game losing streak earlier in the year to win six of its first seven in conference play. JU played a tough non-conference slate: at Michigan State, at Florida, at Georgetown, and at Southern Alabama.
Atlantic Coast Conference (4)
Duke: 17-1 (5-0); 5 RPI, 37 SOS
Duh.
North Carolina: 19-1 (4-1); 3 RPI, 10 SOS
Ditto.
Clemson: 14-5 (3-3); 30 RPI, 20 SOS
The only other lock besides Duke and UNC. The Tigers have only won five of their last 10 games, but hey - it’s not like they’re going to collapse like last year. Right?
North Carolina State: 13-6 (2-3); 50 RPI, 54 SOS
I just can’t do it… I can’t put more than four teams from the most well rounded conference in College ball into my projection. Don’t be surprised if two more teams emerge later on to give the ACC a more complete field, however.
Atlantic 10 (5)
Xavier: 17-4 (5-1); 13 RPI, 22 SOS
Can we officially declare the Musketeers in the class of Gonzaga and Memphis; of high-major teams in mid-major conferences? Xavier can’t lure the best recruits yet, but it almost certainly ranks as the A-10’s best program right now.
Dayton: 15-4 (3-3); 15 RPI, 32 SOS
The Flyers have cooled after a strong start because of the loss of some interior post players to injury. Everyone’s going to remember the 80-55 thrashing they handed Pitt, though, and that will be enough even if the numbers slip a little.
Rhode Island: 18-3 (4-2); 25 RPI, 129 SOS
Giving up 68 on the road to Saint Louis was moderately embarrassing, but the Rams have the complete resume to make it as an at-large. Not to mention five top-100 RPI wins and an undefeated home record.
Massachusetts: 14-6 (3-3); 21 RPI, 11 SOS
The 3-3 conference record is iffy, but the Committee is smart enough to recognize that this conference is in the midst of an extraordinarily strong year. And look at those computer numbers for the Minutemen!
Saint Joseph’s: 13-5 (5-1); 45 RPI, 102 SOS
I know what you’re thinking - five teams for the Atlantic 10? Here’s the scary part - three more (Charlotte, one of the last teams out at this point, Duquesne, and Temple) are on the bubble and could get in with a strong run to end the year. St. Joe’s gets the final spot for now because of its consistent play (one loss outside the top-75 RPI).
Big East (8)
Georgetown: 17-2 (7-1); 9 RPI, 67 SOS
See Georgetown. See Georgetown run. See Georgetown run away with the regular season crown for the single deepest conference in College Basketball history.
Connecticut: 15-3 (5-5); 20 RPI, 15
Check out UConn’s last four games (all wins): Marquette, at Cincinnati, at Indiana, and Louisville. If that doesn’t say “On fire,” I’m not quite sure what does.
Marquette: 14-4 (5-3); 22 RPI, 44 SOS
The Golden Eagles are struggling with (surprise!) road games and their consistency as a team. The three conference losses - all away from Milwaukee - have come by a total of 51 points.
Pittsburgh: 16-4 (5-3); 17 RPI, 39 SOS
The Panthers have had to stave off several injuries to key players, but are no doubt a lock for March Madness. Recent losses against Villanova, Cincy, and Rutgers are cause for concern.
Notre Dame: 14-4 (4-2); 41 RPI, 87 SOS
A surprise at second in the league right now, the Irish have seven games remaining against top-50 RPI foes. Such is the price of playing in a 16-team league.
Louisville: 15-6 (5-3); 38 RPI, 30 SOS
A preseason National Title contender, the Cardinals haven’t quite lived up to the hype. No bad losses, plus a pair of 20-point wins at UNLV and against Marquette, should show how dangerous this team is.
Syracuse: 15-7 (5-4); 36 RPI, 5 SOS
The Committee will certainly account for the season-long loss of star Eric Devendorf, who went down with an ACL tear in December. A tough non-conference schedule (11th in the nation) will also score points with those deciding the seeds.
West Virginia: 14-6 (4-4); 48 RPI, 45 SOS
Yes, the unruly behemoth of a conference finally gets its wish of eight teams (for now)! The February 17 contest at Seton Hall might prove an elimination game of sorts for WVU.
Big Sky (1)
Northern Arizona: 12-7 (6-2); 122 RPI, 209 SOS
The Lumberjacks’ tough non-conference scheduling has paid off, as the tested and experienced squad should retain the Big Sky lead heading into late February.
Big South (1)
North Carolina Asheville: 13-4 (6-0); 100 RPI, 275 SOS
Everyone wants to see Kenny George, a 7’7” 360-pound Center who averages 4.4 blocks per game and shoots over 70% from the floor. But the Bulldogs are a legit team, with three of their losses on the road to top-half ACC foes.
Big 10 (5)
Indiana: 17-2 (6-0); 34 RPI, 131 SOS
A five-point home loss to a streaking UConn team is nothing to be ashamed about, especially since it snapped an impressive 13-game winning streak. The going only gets tougher for the Hoosiers from here, however.
Michigan State: 19-2 (7-1); 7 RPI, 34 SOS
Hold on - a Tom Izzo team overachieving? What is this, the year 2000? The Committee will forgive Sparty for putting up a measly 36 in losing to Iowa because of four top-50 RPI wins.
Ohio State: 15-6 (6-2); 19 RPI, 8 SOS
Greg who? OK, so the Buckeyes aren’t title contenders anymore, but their performance so far has done justice to Thad Motta’s ability as a program builder. Six games against teams on this Big 10 list remain on the schedule.
Wisconsin: 16-3 (6-1); 23 RPI, 80 SOS
The Badgers are a lock for The Dance, but I love them as (the wrong end of) an 11-6 first round upset. Their only truly impressive win to date was a one-point victory in Austin against an inconsistent Longhorns squad.
Purdue: 16-5 (7-1); 58 RPI, 127 SOS
Welcome to the most predictable major conference in college basketball! The Boilermakers slip in as the Big 10’s token fifth team this year, thanks to that number you see in parenthesis up there.
Big XII (6)
Kansas: 19-1 (5-1); 4 RPI, 23 SOS
The loss at rival Kansas State doesn’t even hurt the Jayhawks’ chances at a #1 seed in the Tourney that much. Everyone knows this is the most talented team in the country.
Kansas State: 14-4 (5-0); 26 RPI, 19 SOS
If nothing else, at least Bob Huggins didn’t take the Wildcats’ incredible freshman talent with him. Is it too early to pencil in Michael Beasley as the #1 overall pick in the NBA Draft (25.3 points, 12.7 boards, and 1.8 blocks per game in less than 30 minutes per contest)?
Baylor: 15-3 (4-1); 29 RPI, 64 SOS
Yes, it’s Baylor! A great story after the tragedy that befell the program five years ago, the Bears are finally good at something other than Women’s Basketball. Even better, they’re a mortal lock.
Texas: 15-4 (3-2); 16 RPI, 21 SOS
The Longhorns have a two-point win at UCLA and a 21-point win at a neutral site against Tennessee to their credit (yikes!). The next nine games, all against top-100 RPI competition, will tell us how far this team can go in March.
Oklahoma: 15-5 (3-2); 28 RPI, 24 SOS
No bad losses help the computer numbers considerably for a good, but unspectacular, Sooners bunch. Five games remain against the Texas Four (that’s UT, A&M, Tech, and Baylor).
Texas A&M: 16-4 (3-3); 33 RPI, 74 SOS
Mark Turgeon’s group has struggled a bit recently (see their recent three-game losing streak), but of its 16 wins, only one has come by single digits.
Big West (1)
Cal State Northridge: 13-4 (6-0); 86 RPI, 266 SOS
The Matadors are a game and a half ahead of the second place competition in the league, but still have four games remaining against the next three best teams (Pacific, Cal State Fullerton, UC Santa Barbara) in the Big West.
Colonial Athletic Association (2)
Virginia Commonwealth: 15-5 (8-2); 65 RPI, 165 SOS
The runnin’ Rams have streaked to the top of the CAA (12 wins in their last 14 games). With no top-50 RPI wins, it is tough to see VCU earning at-large consideration from the committee.
George Mason: 15-6 (7-3); 49 RPI, 96 SOS
They’re back! The team that shocked the world two years ago looks poised to make another run at The Dance; like VCU, Mason has no top-150 RPI teams remaining on its schedule, and it owns a few quality wins (vs. Dayton, neutral vs. Kansas State, vs. VCU) for at-large consideration. Each loss has come by eight points or fewer.
Conference USA (1)
Memphis: 20-0 (6-0); 2 RPI, 31 SOS
Houston and Alabama-Birmingham are stretches to make The Dance at this point, so it looks like my pre-season Champion pick will be the only representative of C-USA - for now. The Tigers are 1 in the RPI and 14 in SOS out of its league, with wins over Oklahoma, UConn, USC, Georgetown, Arizona, and Gonzaga.
Horizon League (1)
Butler: 19-2 (8-2); 24 RPI, 156 SOS
Last year’s Sweet 16 surprise looks good as a repeat league champion. The Bulldogs are also the only Horizon League team with enough juice to make it as an at-large team, though there are plenty of able contenders ready for an upset in the conference tournament.
Ivy League (1)
Cornell: 9-5 (2-0); 89 RPI 178 SOS
In a transition year for the Ivy League, the Big Red looks to have the upper hand in the only conference that awards its post-season bid to the regular season champion.
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (1)
Rider: 16-6 (9-2); 117 RPI, 271 SOS
The Broncs have ridden an eight-game winning streak to the top of the MAAC, and the best brother duo in the country, senior forward Jason and sophomore guard Ryan Thompson (combined 35.1 points, 17.6 rebounds, 6.7 assists per game), looks to keep this Bracketologist’s sentimental favorite there.
Mid-American Conference (1)
Kent State: 17-4 (6-1); 40 RPI, 128 SOS
Talk about conference imbalance: the MAC East owns four teams (Kent State, Ohio, Miami U, and Akron) at least 99 points higher in the RPI than the West’s best team (Western Michigan). The Golden Flashes also represent the MAC’s best hope for an at-large bid.
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (1)
Norfolk State: 9-9 (6-1); 283 RPI, 341 SOS
NSU started 2-8, but has since recovered to reach .500 overall. The Spartans have a showdown with fellow MEAC contender Hampton on Saturday.
Missouri Valley (2)
Drake: 17-1 (10-0); 6 RPI, 65 SOS
Yes, you read that correctly - Drake is sixth in the RPI. Sixth! The Bulldogs are proof that you don’t need a tough non-conference schedule to impress - as long as you win all your games.
Illinois State: 14-6 (7-3); 46 RPI, 82 SOS
Everyone knows the MVC is a multi-bid league every year now, but Drake and Illinois State? The Redbirds are shining in a down year for the conference’s two glamour programs, Southern Illinois and Creighton.
Mountain West (2)
Nevada-Las Vegas: 15-4 (5-1); 32 RPI, 69 SOS
Not expected to contend after losing almost all of its starting lineup from last year, UNLV is nonetheless basically assured of a ticket to The Dance because of strong computer numbers.
Brigham Young: 16-5 (5-1); 43 RPI, 105 SOS
Big-league bubble teams have to worry about San Diego State or New Mexico making a run in the MWC Tourney to steal a bid, but BYU doesn’t. The Cougars get a chance to avenge a 70-41 whooping to UNLV in Provo on February 16.
Northeast Conference (1)
Wagner: 14-5 (7-1); 148 RPI, 319 SOS
The Seahawks have ridden a fortuitous streak to the top of the NEC, but have a lot to prove, as four of their losses have come to sub-200 RPI foes.
Ohio Valley Conference (1)
Murray State: 11-7 (9-3); 172 RPI, 265 SOS
The Racers have reeled off eight in a row, including a big home win against Austin Peay, which is tied with MSU for first in the conference. The two face off tonight in what would probably decide the OVC regular season title.
Pacific 10 (5)
UCLA: 17-2 (6-1); 12 RPI, 36 SOS
Can the Bruins look to three-peat - as in, make the Final 4 for the third straight year? The odds of that look average to good, but they still have five games remaining against teams on this list.
Washington State: 17-2 (5-2); 11 RPI, 83 SOS
Tony Bennett’s crew has the most respectable losses in the nation: at UCLA and at Arizona. Road wins against Baylor and Gonzaga look great at the moment.
Arizona: 13-6 (4-3); 8 RPI, 1 SOS
The Wildcats always seem to play one of the toughest schedules in the nation; this year, like last year, they’re #1. There’s only one bad loss on their slate… and we all know which one that is.
Southern California: 13-6 (4-3); 37 RPI, 25 SOS
Mark it down: the Trojans will have a better record next season without cocky freshman O.J. Mayo. As for this year, USC looks good for a four seed or so.
Stanford: 16-3 (5-2); 31 RPI, 106 SOS
Recent conference wins against Southern Cal, Arizona, and at Cal have solidified the Cardinal’s at-large bid for the moment… but a tough schedule remains.
Patriot League (1)
Lafayette: 14-7 (5-1); 128 RPI, 239 SOS
The surprising Leopards stand a game ahead of perennial league favorite Bucknell, and still must face the Bison on the road in February.
Southeastern Conference (6)
Tennessee: 17-2 (5-1); 1 RPI, 2 SOS
Think those computer numbers are good enough? It’s a surprise the Vols aren’t receiving more consideration as a potential #1 seed.
Florida: 18-3 (5-1); 44 RPI, 151 SOS
In case you were wondering, yes, it is possible for a two-time defending national champion to fly under the radar. Point guard Nick Calathes (16 ppg, 6 apg, 5 rpg) is my favorite freshman of them all.
Mississippi: 16-3 (3-3); 10 RPI, 43 SOS
One of the biggest surprises in the country, the Rebels are 0-3 on the road in conference but 3-0 at home. No games remain against either UT or UF, which will help Ole Miss pad its pre-Tourney record.
Mississippi State: 14-6 (5-1); 56 RPI, 70 SOS
The Bulldogs are back in the Tournament picture after a few years away from the spotlight. The last team to lose in SEC play, MSU has no losses to non-top 75 RPI teams.
Vanderbilt: 17-4 (2-4); 14 RPI, 38 SOS
The Commodores started 16-0, but have hit a wall in SEC play. All four losses are on the road, though, and only three top-50 RPI teams are left on the slate.
Arkansas: 15-5 (4-2); 42 RPI, 63 SOS
Two dubious conference losses (vs. South Carolina, at Georgia) have cast a little doubt on Woo Pig Sooey, but the numbers are there and so are the quality wins (neutral vs. VCU and Baylor).
Southern Conference (1)
Davidson: 13-6 (12-0); 73 RPI, 152 SOS
Besides a 10-game winning streak, the most encouraging sign for these Wildcats is their performance against its state’s big three basketball programs: losses to Duke, North Carolina, and North Carolina State by a combined 11 points.
Southland (1)
Lamar: 6-8 (4-1); 178 RPI, 141 SOS
The Cardinals are in first for now despite almost-bubble teams Sam Houston State and Stephen F. Austin, but an extremely weak non-conference slate (four wins over non-Division 1 competition) could catch up with them down the road.
Southwestern Athletic Conference (1)
Alabama State: 7-7 (6-1), 224 RPI, 330 SOS
On a five-game winning streak, with four of those wins in double-digits, the Hornets have also performed admirably against BCS schools Auburn and Miami.
Summit League (1)
Oral Roberts: 13-5 (9-0); 60 RPI, 172 SOS
The artist formerly known as the Mid-Continent Conference welcomes new competitors North Dakota State and South Dakota State, but it is perennial favorite ORU who remains atop the league’s standings.
Sun Belt (1)
Southern Alabama: 15-3 (9-0); 27 RPI, 113 SOS
The Jaguars took a big chance in re-hiring Ronnie Arrow as coach after a previous stint in Mobile, and it looks like a good move at the moment. I’m hesitant to give Western Kentucky an at-large bid, but the Sun Belt certainly seems a decent contender for multiple bids.
Western Athletic Conference (1)
Utah State: 14-6 (5-1); 102 RPI, 212 SOS
Normally a multi-bid league, the WAC will have to settle for one team (for now). USU features my pick for best shooter in the country, senior guard Jaycee Carroll (.532 from the field, .512 from three, .929 from the foul line).
West Coast Conference (2)
Gonzaga: 16-5 (5-0); 35 RPI, 51 SOS
The Zags have four very good neutral or road wins (Western Kentucky, Virginia Tech, St. Joe’s, UConn) and no dubious losses. Sounds like a recipe for an eventual top-3 seed.
Saint Mary’s: 16-3 (4-1); 18 RPI, 93 SOS
One of college basketball’s best stories early on, the Gaels are a lock for the tournament at this point. A 5-2 record against top-100 RPI competition has solidified their spot, even if they are swept by Gonzaga in conference play.
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