Another exciting week of college basketball has transpired, and the constant shake-up of the NCAA Tournament Field has inspired us here at Fanaticology to change it up a bit ourselves. We will still provide a conference-by-conference look at the field of 65, but our focus is now directed more at the contentious at-large berths at stake.
Each conference already gets an automatic berth to the Tournament. A “Lock” is a team that does not figure into the automatic berth at the moment, but would definitely be in the field if the selection committee convened right now. A “Bubble” team is one whose tourney hopes are as uncertain as the game itself. Also, an asterisk * will denote teams new to the Field. Here we go:
America East (1)
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Maryland-Baltimore County: 18-7 (11-2); 91 RPI, 241 SOS
Atlantic Sun (1)
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Belmont: 18-8 (11-2); 101 RPI, 240 SOS
Atlantic Coast Conference (6)
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Duke: 22-3 (10-2); 3 RPI, 4 SOS
Locks
North Carolina: 25-2 (10-2); 4 RPI, 5 SOS
Clemson: 18-7 (7-5); 25 RPI, 27 SOS
Bubble
Maryland: 17-10 (7-5); 62 RPI, 22 SOS
Being swept by Virginia Tech really, really hurts the Terps. With computer numbers similar to the Hokies, the only thing keeping Maryland in is a home win against a then-healthy North Carolina squad. With 10 losses, a closing stretch of three out of four road games is crucial to UMD’s Tournament hopes.
*Miami: 17-7 (5-6); 29 SOS, 33 RPI
Both the ‘Canes and the Deacons beat Duke in the past week, but Miami gets the nod thanks to its three most recent wins, which have come by a total of five points. The U’s big cause for concern is its road/neutral record; though they were 5-1 with two top-100 RPI wins out of conferences, the Hurricanes are only 2-4 on the road in the ACC.
*Wake Forest: 16-8 (6-5); 64 RPI, 93 SOS
Yeah, Virginia Tech swept Maryland, but Wake has the more complete resume. Though its computer numbers are dreadful for an at-large hopeful from the ACC, WFU has been playing well enough of late to merit the last spot in this projection. A 2-7 road record might doom them in front of the real committee, however.
Atlantic 10 (3)
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Xavier: 22-4 (12-1); 9 RPI, 23 SOS
Lock
Rhode Island: 20-6 (6-5); 31 RPI, 98 SOS
Bubble
Dayton: 17-7 (5-6); 23 RPI, 19 SOS
The Flyers have recovered a bit from their swoon, and should be able to hold onto an at-large berth as long as their computer numbers remain static and their conference record close to .500. Dayton owns a 3-3 mark against RPI top-50 clubs, including a December win at Louisville that looks better and better with each passing week.
Big East (8)
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Georgetown: 21-4 (11-3); 8 RPI, 42 SOS
Locks
Connecticut: 21-5 (11-3); 11 RPI, 12 SOS
Louisville: 21-6 (11-3); 14 RPI, 15 SOS
Notre Dame: 20-5 (10-3); 24 RPI, 75 SOS
Marquette: 18-6 (9-5); 16 RPI, 16 SOS
Pittsburgh: 18-7 (7-6); 20 RPI, 45 SOS
Bubble
West Virginia: 17-8 (7-6); 39 RPI, 44 SOS
The loss to bubble-bound Villanova hurts a little, but Bob Huggins’ crew is still sitting relatively pretty at the moment. The Mountaineers have a respectable 6-6 road/neutral record, including a 2-3 mark in the Big East. They have lost to only two teams currently ranked outside the top-50 RPI - those schools measure in at 53 and 77.
Syracuse: 17-10 (7-7); 48 RPI, 10 SOS
The Orange sink to “last team in” status in the Big East - but I have a feeling they’d be OK with that. They have an unfortunate 1-7 mark against the RPI top-50, but are 3-2 against teams ranked 51-100. ‘Cuse has a chance to make or break its Tourney bid, with four top-70 RPI opponents remaining on the slate - plus the Big East Conference Tournament.
Big Sky (1)
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Portland State: 16-8 (11-2); 112 RPI, 245 SOS
Big South (1)
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*Winthrop: 16-9 (9-3); 106 RPI, 192 SOS
Big 10 (5)
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Purdue: 21-6 (12-2); 29 RPI, 83 SOS
Locks
Wisconsin: 22-4 (12-2); 12 RPI, 50 SOS
Indiana: 22-4 (11-2); 19 RPI, 59 SOS
Michigan State: 21-5 (9-4); 13 RPI, 51 SOS
Bubble
Ohio State: 17-9 (8-5); 47 RPI, 48 SOS
Ohio State is currently flirting with NIT territory: three losses in its last five games (including road losses to Big Ten bottom-feeders Iowa and Michigan) but it squarely on the bubble. It also hurts that the Buckeyes are a poor 1-6 against the RPI top-50. But they are clearly the fifth best team in a five-bid league, so expect a low seed in the Big Dance for Thad Motta’s crew.
Big XII (6)
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Kansas: 23-2 (9-2); 6 RPI, 55 SOS
Locks
Texas: 21-4 (9-2); 5 RPI, 3 SOS
Kansas State: 17-7 (8-3); 36 RPI, 38 SOS
Oklahoma: 18-8 (6-5); 30 RPI, 14 SOS
Texas A&M: 19-6 (6-5); 38 RPI, 78 SOS
Bubble
Baylor: 16-8 (5-6); 42 RPI, 36 SOS
Someone, help this team get out of free-fall mode. The Bears have gone from potentially the fourth-best team in a six-bid league to a comfortable seat on the bubble, thanks to six losses in a span of seven games. A 7-5 road/neutral record is good, but a 2-7 mark against the RPI top-50 isn’t. Still, if this team wins four more games including one in the conference tournament, they should be dancing for the first time in ages.
Big West (1)
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Cal State Northridge: 17-6 (10-2); 104 RPI, 276 SOS
Colonial Athletic Association (1)
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Virginia Commonwealth: 20-6 (13-3); 60 RPI, 165 SOS
Conference USA (1)
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Memphis: 26-0 (12-0); 2 RPI, 26 SOS
Horizon League (1)
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Butler: 25-2 (14-2); 17 RPI, 145 SOS
Ivy League (1)
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Cornell: 15-5 (8-0); 85 RPI 243 SOS
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (1)
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Rider: 18-9 (11-5); 133 RPI, 150 SOS
Mid-American Conference (1)
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Kent State: 22-5 (11-2); 503 RPI, 157 SOS
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (1)
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Morgan State: 15-9 (11-2); 151 RPI, 277 SOS
Missouri Valley (1)
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Drake: 21-3 (14-2); 15 RPI, 87 SOS
Mountain West (2)
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Brigham Young: 21-5 (10-1); 27 RPI, 101 SOS
Lock
Nevada-Las Vegas: 18-6 (8-3); 33 RPI, 72 SOS
Northeast Conference (1)
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Robert Morris: 21-6 (12-2); 152 RPI, 326 SOS
Ohio Valley Conference (1)
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Austin Peay: 18-10 (14-4); 121 RPI, 234 SOS
Pacific 10 (5)
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UCLA: 21-3 (10-2); 7 RPI, 18 SOS
Locks
Stanford: 21-4 (10-3); 21 RPI, 92 SOS
Washington State: 20-5 (8-5); 22 RPI, 61 SOS
Arizona: 15-9 (6-6); 18 RPI, 1 SOS
Southern California: 15-9 (6-6); 39 RPI, 6 SOS
Patriot League (1)
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American: 17-10 (9-3); 107 RPI, 180 SOS
Southeastern Conference (5)
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Tennessee: 23-2 (11-1); 1 RPI, 2 SOS
Locks
Vanderbilt: 22-4 (7-4); 10 RPI, 54 SOS
Mississippi State: 17-8 (8-3); 46 RPI, 49 SOS
Arkansas: 18-7 (7-4); 34 RPI, 53 SOS
Bubble
*Florida: 20-7 (7-5); 57 RPI, 114 SOS
Four losses in six games have put the Gators’ NCAA hopes in serious jeopardy, although their resume was already seriously lacking (a non-conference SOS of 298 - are you kidding me? Schedule someone besides Stetson!). But a split with Vandy and a home win over Kentucky give the two-time champs “last four in” status for the week.
Southern Conference (1)
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Davidson: 19-6 (18-0); 61 RPI, 162 SOS
Southland (1)
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Lamar: 11-8 (9-1); 128 RPI, 168 SOS
Southwestern Athletic Conference (1)
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Alabama State: 11-8 (10-2), 212 RPI, 336 SOS
Summit League (1)
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Oral Roberts: 18-6 (14-1); 44 RPI, 139 SOS
Sun Belt (2)
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*Western Kentucky: 19-5 (13-1); 45 RPI, 155 SOS
Bubble
Southern Alabama: 19-5 (13-2); 37 RPI, 131 SOS
Whoa, hold on a second. Southern Alabama is an at large-caliber team?
You heard it here first, folks. The Jags lost the Sun Belt lead to rival WKU, but they own the head-to-head match-up with the Highlanders (with a rematch soon to come) and their body of work is more consistent than most BCS Conference schools’ resumes (2-2 record against the RPI top-50).
Western Athletic Conference (1)
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*Boise State: 19-6 (10-3); 98 RPI, 247 SOS
West Coast Conference (2)
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Saint Mary’s: 22-3 (10-1); 26 RPI, 158 SOS
Lock
Gonzaga: 21-6 (10-1); 32 RPI, 89 SOS
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