Ladies and gentlemen, start your brackets!
Another Selection Sunday has come and gone, and in the spirit of the best weekend in sports, here’s a quick guide to the 2008 NCAA Tournament, guaranteed to help you win your bracket pool.
The Committee’s Pets
Memphis: Pittsburgh and Michigan State? Really? The Tigers have no consistent threats (Pitt struggled entering their Big East Tournament Championship run) in their side of the bracket, making a third straight Elite Eight appearance extremely likely. The 2 and 3 seeds on the other side of the South, Texas and Stanford, are tough but would face difficult match-ups against Coach Cal’s squad.
Oregon: Staying in the West bracket, we have an interesting case in Oregon. Before Sunday, it was hard to believe the Ducks were tournament-bound, what with their 13 losses, 58 RPI rating, and sketchy 6-10 road/neutral mark. But then the committee gives them a 9 seed in arguably the easiest bracket, ranked higher than Baylor, Villanova, and Saint Mary’s.
The Big East: With Villanova’s stealthy entrance as a 12 seed, not only did the Big East get eight teams in, but it’s also clear the committee respects this conference as much as it ever has. Seven of those teams received seeds of 7 or higher - essentially meaning Big East squads comprise one quarter of the league’s top 30 or so teams. This harped on the committee’s favorite theme: play good teams and get rewarded.
The Royally Screwed Club
Butler: First and foremost, any team that wins 29 games, 10 against RPI top-100 competition, deserves a better than a 7 seed. Moreover, the Bulldogs had been ranked almost the entire season, and finished with an RPI of 17. Then, they get stuck against a really underrated South Alabama team (in Birmingham) in the first round, followed by probable dates with Tennessee and Louisville. Tough draw for a good team looking for a repeat Sweet 16 appearance.
Ohio State: Presumably the last team out, the Buckeye’s hopes were all but smashed when Georgia somehow pulled out the SEC Tournament win and effectively doomed one more bubble dreamer.
The First Sign of March Madness
Georgia: Are you kidding me? The Bulldogs tied for LAST in the SEC with a 4-12 record. The Bulldogs were so bad that they won only four games from January 12th to March 8th, and then they sweep their way through the conference tournament, winning four times in four days. Go figure! This is either a sign of the SEC’s weakness, or the magic of March. I’d like to think it’s a little bit of both.
Can’t Miss First Round Match-ups
As always, good and potentially great storylines populate the NCAA Tournament landscape. This year, the best first-round battles include:
East 5 Notre Dame vs. 12 George Mason: The Patriots’ first tournament appearance since their magical Final Four run in 2006 sees a date with an underrated Notre Dame squad. Many think this is a 5/12 upset waiting to happen, but the Fanaticologist doesn’t see it.
Midwest 6 Southern Cal vs. 11 Kansas State: Some of the best first-year players in the game, O.J. Mayo and Davon Jefferson for USC, Bill Walker and Michael Beasley for K-State, take the stage in this one. Expect highlights galore.
Midwest 5 Clemson vs. 12 Villanova: Likely the last team in, Villanova’s guard-oriented attack will face off against Clemson’s guard-oriented offense. This game will virtually rain threes - and if they fall, it could be the highest-scoring game of the first round.
Dark Horses, Sleepers, and Teams You Don’t Want Anything to Do With
We all know the story: the unheralded mid-major team that plays its best ball going into March, pulls off a second-round shocker, and before you know it, that office accountant that liked the school’s color combination walks away with your $20. Here are this year’s possible bracket-busters.
Xavier: The Musketeers have trouble playing against Saint Joe’s, and that’s about it - they’re 26-4 against the rest of the country. Superior guard play and a UCONN win over UCLA could propel X into the Final Four. However, a possible second round tilt with a gritty Purdue team could send the Musketeers packing early.
Verdict: Bet on a Sweet 16 appearance, at least, for this legitimate bunch.
Drake: The Bulldogs capped the best season in school history with a 30-point throttling of Illinois State in the MVC Final. The suffocating Drake defense and foul trouble for Hasheem Thabeet, could spell a win over Connecticut and a Sweet 16 appearance. However, the 5/12 upset looms large, as Western Kentucky looks to play spoiler.
Verdict: A good team that runs into trouble against significantly more talented rosters, it’s tough to see Drake toppling any of the powers on its side of the bracket.
Saint Mary’s: The Gaels continued their surge as Gonzaga’s main rival, winning 24 games this season. If SMC gets hot from the floor and rattles D.J. Augustin, a second round upset of a Texas team they lost to by 19 in Austin is very possible. However, an underrated, quick Miami squad could send SMC home early.
Verdict: Saint Mary’s is a good team, just don’t bank on them making it past UT.
Davidson: The Wildcats absolutely dominated the Southern Conference, going 23-0 and winning 18 of those games by 12 points or more. If Stephen Curry and Co. can get past annual cinderella, Gonzaga, a second round win over Georgetown would put the Wildcats on the map and into the Sweet 16.
Verdict: They’ll give anyone a good game, but don’t expect a Cinderella run from this one-man show.
Siena: An initially popular first-round upset pick, the Saints are best known for their upset of Stanford back in November. If the Saints catch fire from outside and benefit from poor shooting by Vandy and Clemson, a Sweet 16 birth is no stretch. However, Siena must first get past Shane Foster and Vanderbilt in the first round.
Verdict: The real wild-card with an equally unpredictable draw, the Saints could realistically upend Vanderbilt, but beyond that is a stretch.
South Alabama: For my money, the best team you’ve never heard of, USA got an unfortunately tough draw against Butler and, presumably, Tennessee. Best-case scenario, the scrappy Jaguars outlast Butler in Birmingham, and push UT to its limits before finally succumbing.
Verdict: Drawing Butler took the thunder out of this upset pick. Every game for the Jags will be a struggle.
Saint Joseph’s: The Hawks solidified their bid with two wins over Xavier in the last two weeks of the season, including one that sent them to the A-10 Final. Phil Martelli is no stranger to deep runs in the NCAA Tournament and Saint Joe’s gets an ailing Oklahoma team in the first round.
Verdict: You have to be worried about the consistency of this team in the big dance. Oklahoma and Louisville are bad draws for them, too.
George Mason: The ultimate Cinderella team of the last 20 years, the Patriots are in this year as an automatic bid recipient. Could a repeat of 2006 be in the cards? The Patriots must first get by Notre Dame and Big East POY Luke Harangody.
Verdict: If I had to choose between the two, I’d bet on the worst-case scenario. But one or two wins in this tournament are not completely out of the question.
Top Seeds That Could Fall Early
Tennessee: They seem to be perpetually involved in heart-attack inducing games. They could make the Final Four, but be wary. The road is rocky, with Louisville and UNC the likely foes. Volunteer backers will have to sweat out every victory after American.
Pittsburgh: Always be wary of teams that suddenly shift into gear during their conference tournaments. Also, Pitt hasn’t beaten a higher-seeded opponent under head coach Jamie Dixon. Whatever you do, don’t fall under the allure of the “physical, good defending team” - they can collapse at a moment’s notice, especially against more athletic, fast-paced competition.
Duke: Gone are the days when you could pencil Duke in for the Elite Eight without even glancing at their path. The Devils have lost some edge lately, dropping curious decisions to Wake Forest, Miami, and Clemson within the last month. The lack of inside scoring is a definite concern.
UConn: Much like Duke, a squad with great name recognition that seems to have peaked too early in the year. If center Hasheem Thabeet picks up early fouls, the whole team starts to collapse; considering his lack of discipline lately, it may be smart to bet against a prolonged run through the field.
Kansas: Despite having coached some immensely talented teams (like this one), Bill Self has never led a squad to the Final Four. This is the most talented team in the country, one without any noticeable weaknesses, and it’s certainly capable of blowing inferior teams off the court. The problem, of course, is that you never want to wager against history.
There you have it: my analysis of the Selection Sunday proceedings. Now, if you want to win your pool, print this out… and immediately light it on fire. Maybe color coordination is the way to go.
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