You know what’s the best part of dropping a class?  The added time you have in your day from not having to go, or do the work you’d have to put forth to pass the class.  Well, I dumped a class last week - Jerome’s least favorite class, if anyone is wondering…hint hint, read my interview with Jerome Meyinsse. So, I’ve found myself with a bit of extra time, which I used to look at this predictor I created and realized that it could be better.  I felt like it wasn’t fully explaining what makes a good basketball team.  So I thought about it, gathered some more data, stumbled upon a statistic I’ve never heard of, and voila: a new version that accounts for 88% of the variability. 

What does that mean?  It means it predicts smaller intervals that are better than before.  What goes into this now?  First, there is this interesting new stat I found on ESPN called Adjusted Field Goal %: points minus free throws made divided by shots divided by two.  It basically accounts for the added risk and reward of three point shooting and is nearly 20% more accurate than regular field goal percentage.  After taking that stat for both a team and its opponents, we take points per game (for obvious reasons) and turnover margin.  The last stat that goes in is Free Throw Differential.  It’s basically how many more free throws you make per game than your opponents.  Another bonus of these stats is that none of them require me to guess on average how many games they’ll play so the win totals are actual numbers based on remaining games (i.e. Duke plays 30 games while UNC has 31, so while Duke’s percentage may be higher, Carolina could win more games).  Add all that up along with some constant and you get this: the new improved win predictor!

1. Duke (19-1)        .948    28    29    25
How did Duke jump in front of UNC?  Duke plays much better defense, causes more turnovers, and shoots more consistently.  That should be a great game Wednesday.

2. *UNC (20-1)    .918    28    30    25
They’ve shown that they are beatable with several close calls in conference.  I’m calling an upset on February 12th.  Also, I have a theory that UNC gets an inordinate amount of foul calls and this just backs it up: they’re +10 in free throw differential…that’s so much it’s made them an outlier.  I knew it.

3. Clemson (16-5)    .681    20    24    17
They shoot above average and their defense is pretty good but their free throw shooting is what kills them.  They’re one of only two teams in the conference to have a negative differential.

4. Miami (15-6)    .677    20    23    17
This one was surprising because they don’t shoot as well as I thought they did.  I guess that was balanced out by their defense, which is much better than I anticipated.  Their dive since starting ACC play isn’t a good sign though.

5. Maryland (14-8)    .627    19    23    16
Could our luck be any worse?  One of the worst shooting teams in the ACC goes bonkers to start the game against us.  If they could shoot as well as they play defense, they’d be leading the conference right now.

6. BC (12-8)         .612    18    21    15
I really don’t know how their numbers are so good.  I’ve watched them in person at least seven or eight times this year and they aren’t this good.  We beat them for cryin out loud.

7. FSU (13-10)    .609    19    22    16
They aren’t a great team, but they’re good enough to be competitive every night.  Carolina almost found that out the hard way.

8. *NCST (14-7)    .608    18    22    15
Another team who has an absurd free throw diff (+8.5ish) but unlike they’re Chapel Hill rivals, they can’t score from the field.  Hickson and Costner are great but no one can get them the ball down low.

9. Virginia (11-9)    .587    17    20    14
We’re 1-6 in the ACC but if you think about it, we could just as easily be 6-1.  Our only major loss was to Duke at Cameron (no shame in that).  If Tunji or Lars can get back in there, who knows what can happen (as I gauge my eyes out after watching us get swept by Virginia Tech in basketball).

10. Wake (13-7)    .567    17    20    14
Wake has problems on offense and defense.  They can’t seem to stop other teams from scoring and they can’t score themselves.  They cause turnovers though…a small consolation I guess.

11. Virginia Tech (13-8)    .565    17    20    14
They cannot shoot.  At all.  They’re worse than Maryland.  I honestly have no explanation as to how they’ve won all these games. 

12. GTech (10-10)    .563    17    20    14
Georgia Tech can’t be faulted for their effort.  Their defense, however, needs some serious work as opponents are shooting above 50% adjusted.  By comparison, Maryland’s opponents shoot only 42%.

*One or more of their stats has caused them to be an outlier (FT differential for both UNC and NCST).