Well…it’s been a while since this came out, but there are perfectly good reasons why. First, I had papers to do. I know that’s lame but it’s true. Second, I’ve been collecting more and more data going back farther and farther, and it gets a lot tougher to get the stats I need the further back I go. It’s a bit of a pain and it takes more time than I would like, but it makes this more accurate. Third, I’ve changed the formula so now it is dependant on only one statistic: Points per Possession Differential. This is a great stat that explains 90% of the variability by itself, but it’s time consuming to compute. Throw all that together, and this takes a while to do now.
To elaborate on the stat for those who are interested: basically, there are only three absolute things that can happen when a team has the ball. They can score, miss a shot and fail to get the rebound, or turn it over. I’m measuring how many more points each team scores every time they have the ball compared to their opponents. My measuring of this is a little crude because of the stats provided, but because all the teams are reporting the same stats, it evens out to the same result. And, it’s a pretty common sense stat; even John Madden would agree that if a team is scoring more per possession than their opponent, they’re going to win the game.
even John Madden would agree that if a team is scoring more per possession than their opponent, they’re going to win the game. 
Below, I have the predicted winning percentage as well as their actual so we can see who is overachieving and who is underperforming right now. Note towards the bottom there’s a team who is underperforming by more than 50 percentage points…the most in the conference. Just something to think about.
(Data as of Feb 17)
Team Predicted Actual Best Worst
UNC (24-2) .902 .923 .993 .811
Huge win over the Hokies inflated their numbers a bit but the Heels and Duke are running away with the conference.
Duke (22-2) .879 .917 .969 .788
Stunning loss on the road to Wake put a dent in their numbers but they’re still ahead of Carolina in my book. Should be a great game in Durham.
Clemson (19-6) .699 .760 .785 .613
Okay, I think we can say this Clemson team is a bit better than last year’s squad. Free throw shooting could really hurt them come tournament time though.
Miami (17-7) .687 .708 .773 .601
The ‘Canes are still reaping the benefits from that absurdly easy non-conference schedule. They’re good for a Miami team but they aren’t this good.
UM (17-9) .627 .654 .713 .542
I’ve been saying all year that if Maryland gets an offense, they’ll be really good. Well, they haven’t gotten a consistent one going yet so they’re stuck down here.
WF (16-8) .604 .667 .689 .518
Wake is very good on its own floor but they need to win some on the road before they really take off. They’re young though so that will come with time.
NCST (15-10) .592 .600 .677 .506
I’ve seen them play great and I’ve seen them play awful. And according to the numbers, they’re right where they should be…yikes.
BC (13-11) .580 .542 .665 .494
Did we send them a thank you for our wins? If Tyrese Rice doesn’t show up for a game, pretty much mark it as an L for the Eagles…he’s all they’ve got.
VT (14-11) .580 .560 .665 .494
I hate Carolina, but man it was sweet watching them obliterate Tech last weekend. I still can’t figure out how these guys win games but they get it done.
FSU (14-12) .556 .538 .642 .470
Here’s another team that can win on their floor but doesn’t do so well away from home. I can’t believe we lost to them…argh.
UVA (12-12) .556 .500 .642 .470
Know what’s weird? Next year this team is going to be the complete opposite of this year. We’re going to have a surplus of good post players and no guards. Can Sean redshirt and come back next year?
GT (11-13) .460 .458 .547 .373
They scrap for the whole game and, in some cases, their hustle wins them some games. Unfortunately, their defense is really bad and they’ll get tired eventually…let’s hope it’s Thursday night!
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